NFL · 2026 Week 8
2026 Week 8 Full PPR RB Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published October 29, 2026, 16:59 UTC · first kickoff October 30, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Full PPR, 1QB · 90 players projected · updated October 29, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 8 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times. The projected fantasy points those simulations produce set the order and the tiers.
This board is priced in Full PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
How the tiers work
Players are grouped into tiers at each position by projected fantasy points. A new tier starts where the projections separate, not after a set number of players, so tiers vary in size and a player who stands apart can be a tier on his own.
The breaks come from the best grouping of each position's projections, the method behind Jenks natural breaks, with gaps judged against how widely weekly scores vary at that position. The rule is the same every week and nobody places players by hand.
Within a tier, players are listed by projected points, but the gaps between them are small. They shouldn't decide a start/sit on their own.
A tier's band is the range of its players' projected points. It isn't a range of outcomes.
A player's 80% range is the middle of his simulated scores: the model puts 10% of outcomes below it and 10% above. Real scores can land outside it.
Players in neighbouring tiers often have overlapping ranges. A higher tier means more projected points, not a guarantee of outscoring everyone below it.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 72% of RBs inside the top 12 through Week 7 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 RB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 8
90 RBs in 12 tiers for Week 8. Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 22.5 projected points.
Tiers break where projected points separate, and the differences inside a tier are small. Each 80% range is the middle 80% of that player's simulated scores; real scores can fall outside it.
| Pos | Player | Proj | Outcome profile | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 22.5 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Jahmyr GibbsDETQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 28% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB3 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB33 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 28%Top 12: 61%Top 24: 82% 80% range: 7.3 - 41.6 |
22.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 28% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB3 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB33 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 2 18.6 - 19.4 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Kenneth Walker IIIKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 21%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 79% 80% range: 7.2 - 34.3 |
19.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Bijan RobinsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 18%Top 12: 54%Top 24: 79% 80% range: 7.4 - 33.1 |
18.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 3 15.2 - 16.5 projected points | |||||||
| RB | James Cook IIIBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 71% 80% range: 5.9 - 29.9 |
16.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Kyren WilliamsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 70% 80% range: 6.2 - 28.3 |
16.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Javonte WilliamsDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 69% 80% range: 5.6 - 27.9 |
15.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | D'Andre SwiftCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 69% 80% range: 5.8 - 28.0 |
15.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Derrick HenryBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 67% 80% range: 5.5 - 28.1 |
15.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jaylen WarrenPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 69% 80% range: 6.2 - 27.1 |
15.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jonathan TaylorIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 32%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 68% 80% range: 5.9 - 27.7 |
15.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 32%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Ashton JeantyLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 69% 80% range: 6.2 - 27.1 |
15.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB39 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Bucky IrvingTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 69% 80% range: 5.9 - 27.0 |
15.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB40 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 4 13.4 - 14.5 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Breece HallNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB8 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 57% 80% range: 3.9 - 28.6 |
14.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB8 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Chuba HubbardCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 64% 80% range: 5.4 - 26.5 |
14.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Chase BrownCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 63% 80% range: 5.5 - 25.9 |
14.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Bhayshul TutenJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 59% 80% range: 5.0 - 24.7 |
13.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Josh JacobsGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 54% 80% range: 4.3 - 26.2 |
13.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB48 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Tony PollardTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 59% 80% range: 5.1 - 24.3 |
13.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB43 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 5 11.1 - 12.6 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Braelon AllenNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 53% 80% range: 4.1 - 24.2 |
12.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB49 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Ollie Gordon IIMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 52% 80% range: 4.1 - 22.4 |
12.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr.MINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 49% 80% range: 3.8 - 22.6 |
11.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Rhamondre StevensonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB47 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 53% 80% range: 4.5 - 21.5 |
11.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB47 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jeremiyah LoveARIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 47% 80% range: 3.4 - 22.4 |
11.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB54 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Quinshon JudkinsCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB14 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 49% 80% range: 4.3 - 21.6 |
11.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB14 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Saquon BarkleyPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 44% 80% range: 3.2 - 21.8 |
11.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB57 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 6 9.2 - 10.5 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Emanuel WilsonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 43% 80% range: 3.4 - 20.0 |
10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Kyle MonangaiCHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB15 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 40% 80% range: 2.5 - 21.8 |
10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB15 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB63 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Rachaad WhiteWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 42% 80% range: 3.6 - 19.3 |
10.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB53 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Zach CharbonnetSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB17 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 36% 80% range: 2.1 - 21.1 |
9.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB17 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jordan MasonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB18 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 37% 80% range: 3.0 - 18.6 |
9.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB18 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB59 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Blake CorumLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB18 - RB45 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 38% 80% range: 3.4 - 17.3 |
9.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB18 - RB45 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB55 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Rico DowdlePIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB19 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 36% 80% range: 3.2 - 17.3 |
9.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB19 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB56 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 7 7.6 - 8.8 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Omarion HamptonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 34% 80% range: 3.1 - 16.9 |
8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB58 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | RJ HarveyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB21 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 32% 80% range: 3.3 - 15.7 |
8.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB21 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB56 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Tyler AllgeierARIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB22 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 28% 80% range: 2.7 - 16.2 |
8.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB22 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB62 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jonah ColemanDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB24 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 26% 80% range: 2.5 - 15.4 |
7.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB24 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB62 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | J.K. DobbinsDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB23 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 27% 80% range: 2.7 - 14.9 |
7.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB23 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB61 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 8 6.1 - 6.9 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr.ATLQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB26 - RB61 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 1.8 - 14.8 |
6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB26 - RB61 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB72 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Kenny GainwellTBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB28 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 21% 80% range: 2.1 - 13.2 |
6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB28 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Tyjae SpearsTENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB28 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 20% 80% range: 2.1 - 13.2 |
6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB28 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB67 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | TreVeyon HendersonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB28 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 20% 80% range: 2.4 - 12.8 |
6.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB28 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB65 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Kimani VidalLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB29 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 18% 80% range: 2.3 - 12.3 |
6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB29 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB65 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Keaton MitchellLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB31 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 18% 80% range: 2.4 - 12.2 |
6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB31 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB65 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | MarShawn LloydGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB30 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 17% 80% range: 2.1 - 11.8 |
6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB30 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB67 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Samaje PerineCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB30 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 17% 80% range: 2.2 - 12.1 |
6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB30 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB67 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 9 4.7 - 5.8 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Roschon JohnsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB32 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 17% 80% range: 1.8 - 12.0 |
5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB32 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB72 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Ty JohnsonBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB34 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 2.0 - 11.2 |
5.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB34 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Mike Washington Jr.LV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB49 at the median, RB33 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 15% 80% range: 2.1 - 11.0 |
5.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB49 at the median, RB33 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Dylan SampsonCLEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB33 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 15% 80% range: 1.7 - 11.6 |
5.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB33 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB74 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Justice HillBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB36 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 12% 80% range: 2.2 - 10.6 |
5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB36 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB67 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | George HolaniSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB36 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.9 - 10.7 |
5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB36 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB71 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB35 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 1.8 - 10.9 |
5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB35 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB71 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Tyler GoodsonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB36 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.7 - 10.7 |
5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB36 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB73 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Pierre Strong Jr.GB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB36 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.7 - 10.7 |
5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB36 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB74 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jeremy McNicholsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB36 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.5 - 11.0 |
5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB36 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB76 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Bam KnightARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB39 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 1.7 - 10.1 |
4.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB39 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB73 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Emmett JohnsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB41 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.8 - 9.5 |
4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB41 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB72 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 10 3.8 - 4.2 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Evan HullARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB44 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.0 - 9.6 |
4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB44 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB85 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Seth McGowanIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB46 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB77 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 1.4 - 9.1 |
4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB46 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB77 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Anthony Tyus IIICAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB44 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.1 |
4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB44 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB79 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jaleel McLaughlinCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB45 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.4 - 8.9 |
4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB45 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB78 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Sean TuckerTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB46 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB82 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.2 - 8.9 |
3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB46 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB82 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Craig ReynoldsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB47 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 1.0 - 9.0 |
3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB47 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB87 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Trevor EtienneCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB47 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.5 |
3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB47 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB83 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jaylen WrightMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB49 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.2 - 8.7 |
3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB49 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB81 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 11 2.5 - 3.3 projected points | |||||||
| RB | Isaiah DavisNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB52 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.1 - 7.6 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB52 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB83 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Corey KinerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB67 at the median, RB55 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.0 |
3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB67 at the median, RB55 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB83 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | DJ GiddensIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB55 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.5 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB55 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB92 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Khalil HerbertATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB56 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.5 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB56 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB91 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Kaleb JohnsonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB57 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.5 |
2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB57 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB86 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Ray DavisBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB57 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 1.0 - 6.9 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB57 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB87 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Sione VakiDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB61 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.9 - 5.6 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB61 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB88 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 12 1.2 - 2.3 projected points | |||||||
| RB | AJ DillonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB63 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.8 - 4.6 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB63 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB92 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Elijah MitchellPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB65 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.1 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB65 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Nate CarterKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB66 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.6 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB66 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB99 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Austin EkelerWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB66 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.7 - 3.9 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB66 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB95 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Owen WrightLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB66 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.5 - 4.7 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB66 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB100 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Max BredesonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB66 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.1 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB66 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB98 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Israel AbanikandaDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB66 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.5 - 4.8 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB66 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB101 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Hunter LuepkeDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB67 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.8 - 3.4 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB67 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB92 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Jerome FordARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB70 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.6 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB70 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB102 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Salvon AhmedCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB72 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.4 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB72 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Demond ClaiborneMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB74 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB61 - RB102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.7 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB74 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB61 - RB102 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | DJ HermanMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB72 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.9 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB72 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB102 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Carlos Washington Jr.MIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB73 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.0 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB73 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Kalel MullingsTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB87 at the median, RB75 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB61 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.7 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB87 at the median, RB75 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB61 - RB106 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Dylan LaubeLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB77 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB68 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.0 |
1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB77 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB68 - RB100 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Velus Jones Jr.SEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB78 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.3 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB78 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Kaytron AllenMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB83 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB70 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.4 - 1.9 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB83 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB70 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| RB | Kendall MiltonCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB81 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB67 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.2 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB81 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB67 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | ||||
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 8 RB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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Tier 1 Jahmyr GibbsRB9Jahmyr Gibbs is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB3 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB33 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Kenneth Walker IIIRB11Kenneth Walker III is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Bijan RobinsonRB11Bijan Robinson is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 James Cook IIIRB14James Cook III is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Kyren WilliamsRB15Kyren Williams is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Javonte WilliamsRB15Javonte Williams is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 D'Andre SwiftRB15D'Andre Swift is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Derrick HenryRB16Derrick Henry is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Jaylen WarrenRB16Jaylen Warren is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Jonathan TaylorRB16Jonathan Taylor is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Ashton JeantyRB16Ashton Jeanty is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Bucky IrvingRB16Bucky Irving is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Breece HallRB20Breece Hall is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB8 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Chuba HubbardRB18Chuba Hubbard is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Chase BrownRB18Chase Brown is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Bhayshul TutenRB20Bhayshul Tuten is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Josh JacobsRB22Josh Jacobs is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Tony PollardRB20Tony Pollard is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Braelon AllenRB23Braelon Allen is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Ollie Gordon IIRB24Ollie Gordon II is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Aaron Jones Sr.RB25Aaron Jones Sr. is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Rhamondre StevensonRB23Rhamondre Stevenson is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB47 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Jeremiyah LoveRB26Jeremiyah Love is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Quinshon JudkinsRB25Quinshon Judkins is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB14 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Show RB25 - RB36
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Tier 5 Saquon BarkleyRB28Saquon Barkley is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Emanuel WilsonRB28Emanuel Wilson is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Kyle MonangaiRB32Kyle Monangai is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB15 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB63 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Rachaad WhiteRB29Rachaad White is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Zach CharbonnetRB35Zach Charbonnet is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB17 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Jordan MasonRB33Jordan Mason is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB18 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Blake CorumRB32Blake Corum is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB18 - RB45 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Rico DowdleRB33Rico Dowdle is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB19 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Omarion HamptonRB35Omarion Hampton is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 RJ HarveyRB35RJ Harvey is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB21 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Tyler AllgeierRB39Tyler Allgeier is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB22 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Jonah ColemanRB40Jonah Coleman is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB24 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 77% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 55%, sportsbook props for 65%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Full PPR, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 29, 2026 16:58 UTC. Model rankings-v1.5.1, board captured 2026-10-29.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
