PIT · Bye 9
Rico Dowdle
LMD RB35 for Week 5 · 8.1 projected Full PPR points · RB38 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.1 points this week, RB35. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 30% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.
Week 5
RB35
140th by projected points
Rest of season
RB38
109th by projected points
Projected
8.1
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
14%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 30% at RB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at RB in Week 4
Should you start Rico Dowdle in Week 5?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Rico Dowdle RB35 for Week 5, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 30% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.29 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.13 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.16 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal · Upstream unavailable
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Rico Dowdle back at practice Wednesday
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Rico Dowdle is inching toward return, but has Jaylen Warren proven he’s Steelers’ No. 1 RB?
triblive.com ·
-
Steelers RB Rico Dowdle Reveals Painful Details of His Injury
newsweek.com ·
-
When will Rico Dowdle come back to the Steelers?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rico Dowdle.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Rico Dowdle by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Rico Dowdle has averaged -2.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 8.1 | 4.1 | -4.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 7.8 | 6.4 | -1.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 7.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | @ CLE | 8.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | vs IND | 8.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB29. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots lower, at RB38.
Preseason market: RB29 · ADP 76.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB38 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his RB29 draft price.
Week 5
RB35 −6
LMD has him 6 spots lower than his RB29 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB29 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 114.8 points this season, RB38. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 13% of simulated seasons. That is 8.3 a game over 13.433 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 1 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
8.3 / game
Over 13.433 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 13%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Rico Dowdle #97 in 1QB and #102 in Superflex, RB31 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#97
RB31 · tier 23 · of 297
Superflex
#102
RB31 · tier 18 · of 303
- Last season 196.8 pts 11.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 97% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 9% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.02
pick 86.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.01
half of simulations take him by pick 85
Draft range
6.09 - 9.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.01 in 52% of simulations
Pick 85 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 9.12, where he is available in 7% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 8.01 52% · 9.12 7% · 10.01 6% · 11.12 <1% · 12.01 <1% · 13.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.04 and 8.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.11 | 59% |
| 7.12 | 56% |
| 8.01 | 52% |
| 8.02 | 49% |
| 8.03 | 47% |
| 8.04 | 44% |
| 8.05 | 41% |
| 8.06 | 39% |
| 8.07 | 36% |
| 8.08 | 34% |
| 8.09 | 31% |
| 8.10 | 29% |
| 8.11 | 27% |
| 8.12 | 25% |
| 9.01 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.09-6.10 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 5% | 506 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 6% | 621 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 495 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 3% | 300 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09 | 1% | 133 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Rico Dowdle was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 2%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2%
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2%
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Rico Dowdle was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.