BUF · Bye 7
Ray Davis
LMD RB81 for Week 5 · 1.9 projected Half PPR points · RB85 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 1.9 points this week, RB81. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 6 since Week 4.
Week 5
RB81
320th by projected points
Rest of season
RB85
328th by projected points
Projected
1.9
week 5, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 2% at RB
Movement
↓ 6
RB75 in Week 4, RB81 now
Should you start Ray Davis in Week 5?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Ray Davis RB81 for Week 5, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 2% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.03 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.76 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.31 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Ray Davis questionable for Week 4
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Frank Gore Jr. out snapped Ray Davis
twobillsdrive.com ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Ray Davis's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 167.0 to 160.3 over the last 17 days.
-
Mecole Hardman’s Bills Run Ends as Ray Davis Emerges as the Team’s Punt Return Favorite
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Bills’ Ray Davis victimized by hilarious announcer’s jinx on muffed punt
twobillsdrive.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Ray Davis by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Ray Davis has averaged -1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | — | 0.3 | — |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | — | 0.0 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 2.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 2.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 |
| Wk 5 | @ LAR | 1.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 29.1 points this season, RB85. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 1.9 a game over 12.955 remaining games. Listed questionable.
Per game
1.9 / game
Over 12.955 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Ray Davis #232 in 1QB and #234 in Superflex, RB63 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#232
RB63 · tier 52 · of 297
Superflex
#234
RB63 · tier 45 · of 303
- Last season 53.1 pts 3.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.07
pick 203.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.07
half of simulations take him by pick 203
Draft range
15.02 - 15.13
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,853 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Ray Davis.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.07 in 88% of simulations
Pick 203 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.04 and 15.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.05 | 92% |
| 15.06 | 90% |
| 15.07 | 88% |
| 15.08 | 86% |
| 15.09 | 83% |
| 15.10 | 82% |
| 15.11 | 80% |
| 15.12 | 78% |
| 15.13 | 76% |
| 15.14 | 74% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.02 | 2% | 157 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 241 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 214 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 180 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 211 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 200 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.13 | 2% | 215 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2853 simulations in which Ray Davis was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 3%
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 3%
- Jalen McMillan WR · TB 3%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3%
Usually taken just after
- Denzel Boston WR · CLE 3%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3%
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 3%
- Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Ray Davis was selected in 2853 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.