MIA · Bye 6
Ollie Gordon II
LMD RB27 for Week 5 · 8.7 projected Half PPR points · RB36 rest of season
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.7 points this week, RB27. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 40% of simulated weeks. Up 10 since Week 4.
Week 5
RB27
94th by projected points
Rest of season
RB36
82nd by projected points
Projected
8.7
week 5, Half PPR
Top 12
17%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 40% at RB
Movement
↑ 10
RB37 in Week 4, RB27 now
Should you start Ollie Gordon II in Week 5?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Ollie Gordon II RB27 for Week 5, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 40% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.12 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.42 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.25 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Ollie Gordon, Jaylen Wright Ready to Take Over After De’Von Achane Injury
dolphinstalk.com ·
-
Dolphins Need Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon to Step Up Without De’Von Achane
dolphinstalk.com ·
-
STATUS
Ollie Gordon II is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Ollie Gordon II by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Ollie Gordon II has averaged +6.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LV | 2.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ SF | 2.0 | 0.7 | -1.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs KC | 1.9 | 13.0 | +11.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ MIN | 6.3 | 17.0 | +10.7 |
| Wk 5 | vs CIN | 8.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 107.0 points this season, RB36. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 14% of simulated seasons. That is 8.6 a game over 13 remaining games. Up 1 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
8.6 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 14%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Ollie Gordon II #176 in 1QB and #178 in Superflex, RB47 at his position. Age 22.
1QB
#176
RB47 · tier 40 · of 297
Superflex
#178
RB47 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 50.6 pts 3.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 2% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.09
pick 165.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.09
half of simulations take him by pick 165
Draft range
13.11 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,323 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Ollie Gordon II.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.09 in 65% of simulations
Pick 165 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 15.04, where he is available in 46% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 14.09 65% · 15.04 46%
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.03 and 15.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.07 | 71% |
| 14.08 | 68% |
| 14.09 | 65% |
| 14.10 | 62% |
| 14.11 | 60% |
| 14.12 | 57% |
| 15.01 | 54% |
| 15.02 | 51% |
| 15.03 | 48% |
| 15.04 | 46% |
| 15.05 | 43% |
| 15.06 | 40% |
| 15.07 | 38% |
| 15.08 | 36% |
| 15.09 | 34% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.11 | 2% | 237 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | 3% | 281 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02 | 3% | 301 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | 3% | 281 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 3% | 301 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 3% | 320 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 3% | 277 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7323 simulations in which Ollie Gordon II was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Xavier Legette WR · CAR 2%
- Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Zachariah Branch WR · ATL 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Ollie Gordon II was selected in 7323 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.