LAR · Bye 11
Kyren Williams
LMD RB7 for Week 5 · 16.5 projected Full PPR points · RB8 rest of season
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 16.5 points this week, RB7. Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 73% of simulated weeks. Up 10 since Week 4.
Week 5
RB7
19th by projected points
Rest of season
RB8
16th by projected points
Projected
16.5
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
47%
Top 3: 14% · Top 24: 73% at RB
Movement
↑ 10
RB17 in Week 4, RB7 now
Should you start Kyren Williams in Week 5?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Kyren Williams RB7 for Week 5, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 73% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.58 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.16 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
- Betting markets
- Strong negative-2.04 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Kyren Williams takes over Rams backfield, while Carnell Tate and Isaiah Likely emerge as fantasy factors
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker: First players since 2016 with 2 TD runs in last 4 minutes
NBC Sports ·
-
Why Rams’ Kyren Williams may be most ‘underrated’ RB in NFL
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Sean McVay had a great quote about Kyren Williams after his 2 late TDs
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Kyren Williams will love Matthew Stafford’s take after Rams stun the Eagles
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kyren Williams by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Kyren Williams has averaged +11.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 10.2 | 15.5 | +5.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 9.0 | 15.7 | +6.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 12.7 | 21.8 | +9.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ PHI | 13.8 | 36.7 | +22.9 |
| Wk 5 | vs BUF | 16.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB16. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots higher, at RB8.
Preseason market: RB16 · ADP 31.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB8 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his RB16 draft price.
Week 5
RB7 +9
LMD has him 9 spots higher than his RB16 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB16 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 215.0 points this season, RB8. Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 75% · Top 24: 99% of simulated seasons. That is 16.5 a game over 13 remaining games.
Per game
16.5 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 75% · Top 24: 99%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kyren Williams #16 in 1QB and #23 in Superflex, RB9 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#16
RB9 · tier 8 · of 297
Superflex
#23
RB9 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 245.3 pts 14.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 20.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 9% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.11
pick 35.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.12
half of simulations take him by pick 36
Draft range
3.04 - 4.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.12 in 52% of simulations
Pick 36 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 4.01, where he is available in 44% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 3.12 52% · 4.01 44% · 5.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.08 and 4.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.10 | 67% |
| 3.11 | 60% |
| 3.12 | 52% |
| 4.01 | 44% |
| 4.02 | 36% |
| 4.03 | 28% |
| 4.04 | 22% |
| 4.05 | 16% |
| 4.06 | 11% |
| 4.07 | 7% |
| 4.08 | 4% |
| 4.09 | 2% |
| 4.10 | 1% |
| 4.11 | <1% |
| 4.12 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.04 | 2% | 227 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 6% | 596 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 7% | 696 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 8% | 783 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 8% | 809 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 8% | 810 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 8% | 773 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 7% | 658 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 6% | 597 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Kyren Williams was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 7%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
- Drake Maye QB · NE 4%
- Chris Olave WR · NO 4%
Usually taken just after
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 5%
- Drake Maye QB · NE 4%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 4%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kyren Williams was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.