CHI · Bye 10
D'Andre Swift
LMD RB14 for Week 5 · 13.8 projected Full PPR points · RB16 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.8 points this week, RB14. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 33% · Top 24: 58% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 3 since Week 4.
Week 5
RB14
52nd by projected points
Rest of season
RB16
33rd by projected points
Projected
13.8
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
33%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 58% at RB
Movement
↓ 3
RB11 in Week 4, RB14 now
Should you start D'Andre Swift in Week 5?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks D'Andre Swift RB14 for Week 5, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 58% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.15 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.09 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.69 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
D'Andre Swift does not practice Wednesday
USA TODAY ·
-
D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai both on Bears' injury report Wednesday
nbcchicago.com ·
-
D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Caleb Williams did not practice Wednesday
NBC Sports ·
-
Ben Johnson calls out 'egregious' error from Bears RB D'Andre Swift
bundle.app ·
-
Chicago Bears Q&A: Is D’Andre Swift still RB1? How close is Caleb Williams to returning?
chicagotribune.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to D'Andre Swift by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games D'Andre Swift has averaged +4.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CAR | 7.4 | 32.4 | +25.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIN | 10.8 | 12.9 | +2.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs PHI | 14.6 | 10.8 | -3.8 |
| Wk 4 | vs NYJ | 14.6 | 7.4 | -7.2 |
| Wk 5 | @ GB | 13.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB19. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots higher, at RB16.
Preseason market: RB19 · ADP 42.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB16 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his RB19 draft price.
Week 5
RB14 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his RB19 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB19 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 177.9 points this season, RB16. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 32% · Top 24: 88% of simulated seasons. That is 13.9 a game over 13 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 1 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
13.9 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 32% · Top 24: 88%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has D'Andre Swift #49 in 1QB and #59 in Superflex, RB19 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#49
RB19 · tier 15 · of 297
Superflex
#59
RB19 · tier 12 · of 303
- Last season 211.6 pts 13.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 17.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.01
pick 48.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.01
half of simulations take him by pick 49
Draft range
4.03 - 5.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.01 in 53% of simulations
Pick 49 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 6.12, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 5.01 53% · 6.12 <1% · 7.01 <1% · 8.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.08 and 5.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.11 | 62% |
| 4.12 | 58% |
| 5.01 | 53% |
| 5.02 | 48% |
| 5.03 | 42% |
| 5.04 | 37% |
| 5.05 | 32% |
| 5.06 | 27% |
| 5.07 | 23% |
| 5.08 | 19% |
| 5.09 | 16% |
| 5.10 | 13% |
| 5.11 | 11% |
| 5.12 | 9% |
| 6.01 | 8% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.03 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 2% | 223 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 4% | 428 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 5% | 495 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 4% | 358 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 3% | 270 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 2% | 180 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which D'Andre Swift was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 3%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 4%
- Lamar Jackson QB · BAL 3%
- Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 3%
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
D'Andre Swift was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.