HOU · Bye 8
David Montgomery
LMD RB28 for Week 5 · 10.0 projected Full PPR points · RB31 rest of season
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.0 points this week, RB28. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 43% of simulated weeks. Down 6 since Week 4.
Week 5
RB28
106th by projected points
Rest of season
RB31
86th by projected points
Projected
10.0
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
18%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 43% at RB
Movement
↓ 6
RB22 in Week 4, RB28 now
Should you start David Montgomery in Week 5?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks David Montgomery RB28 for Week 5, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 43% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB28 vs RB24 -4
LMD has him RB28. The fantasy draft market has him RB24, 4 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline and our projection is lower than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.51 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.35 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.44 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.13 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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David Montgomery, Ollie Gordon, And All Our Must-Sit Fantasy Football Running Backs For Week 5
Yahoo Sports ·
-
David Montgomery shut down for the third straight game in Week 4
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Bet on David Montgomery to go over his receiving yards total in Week 4 against the Cowboys.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Fantasy football Week 4 PPR Cheat Sheet: David Montgomery a boom-bust RB2 play as Houston committee emerges
CBS Sports ·
-
David Montgomery finishes with 48 total yards
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to David Montgomery by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games David Montgomery has averaged +0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 8.8 | 28.9 | +20.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 10.2 | 4.4 | -5.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 11.1 | 6.8 | -4.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 11.0 | 4.3 | -6.7 |
| Wk 5 | @ TEN | 10.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB22. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots lower, at RB31.
Preseason market: RB22 · ADP 52.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB31 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his RB22 draft price.
Week 5
RB28 −6
LMD has him 6 spots lower than his RB22 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB22 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 124.8 points this season, RB31. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 21% of simulated seasons. That is 10.0 a game over 13 remaining games. Down 2 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
10.0 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 21%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has David Montgomery #99 in 1QB and #103 in Superflex, RB32 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#99
RB32 · tier 23 · of 297
Superflex
#103
RB32 · tier 18 · of 303
- Last season 154.9 pts 9.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 13.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 7% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.11
pick 58.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.11
half of simulations take him by pick 59
Draft range
4.11 - 6.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.11 in 53% of simulations
Pick 59 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 6.02, where he is available in 39% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 5.11 53% · 6.02 39% · 7.11 <1% · 8.02 <1% · 9.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.05 and 6.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.09 | 62% |
| 5.10 | 58% |
| 5.11 | 53% |
| 5.12 | 49% |
| 6.01 | 44% |
| 6.02 | 39% |
| 6.03 | 34% |
| 6.04 | 30% |
| 6.05 | 26% |
| 6.06 | 21% |
| 6.07 | 18% |
| 6.08 | 14% |
| 6.09 | 12% |
| 6.10 | 10% |
| 6.11 | 8% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.11 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 2% | 202 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 4% | 387 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 4% | 428 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12 | 5% | 457 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03 | 4% | 444 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08 | 3% | 255 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which David Montgomery was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Caleb Williams QB · CHI 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 3%
Usually taken just after
- Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 3%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
David Montgomery was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.