NFL · 2026 Week 6
2026 Week 6 Full PPR RB Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published October 15, 2026, 21:56 UTC · first kickoff October 16, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Full PPR, 1QB · 100 players projected · updated October 15, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 6 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Full PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 64% of RBs inside the top 12 through Week 5 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 325 RB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 6
100 RBs ranked for Week 6. Kenneth Walker III leads at 21.3 projected points.
Tier break
2.5 projected points separate RB2 Bijan Robinson from RB3 Christian McCaffrey.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Ahead
- Braelon AllenRB18Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 5% · Top 12: 28% · Top 24: 56% +30 vs. RB48
- Woody MarksRB23Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 47% +21 vs. RB44
- Keaton MitchellRB34Recent usage above his season baselineTop 3: 1% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 30% +20 vs. RB54
Movement
Risers
- Woody MarksRB23Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 47% ↑ 19
- Tyjae SpearsRB35Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 25% ↑ 11
- Blake CorumRB32Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 34% ↑ 8
Fallers
- Jeremiyah LoveRB22Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 49% ↓ 6
- RJ HarveyRB29Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 37% ↓ 6
- TreVeyon HendersonRB30Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 15% · Top 24: 35% ↓ 4
Positional movement since the final Week 5 board, among players inside RB36 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | Kenneth Walker IIIKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 27% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB8 at the median, RB3 - RB18 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB29 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 27%Top 12: 63%Top 24: 86% |
RB1NEW | 21.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 27% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB8 at the median, RB3 - RB18 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB29 in the middle 80%. | |
| 2 | RB | Bijan RobinsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 26% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB8 at the median, RB3 - RB16 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 26%Top 12: 66%Top 24: 88% |
RB2— | 21.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 26% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB8 at the median, RB3 - RB16 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB26 in the middle 80%. | |
| 3 | RB | Christian McCaffreySF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB5 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB31 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 82% |
RB3↑ 1 | 18.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB5 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB31 in the middle 80%. | |
| 4 | RB | Kyren WilliamsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 81% |
RB4↑ 3 | 18.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%. | |
| 5 | RB | Jonathan TaylorIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 82% |
RB5↓ 2 | 18.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%. | |
| 6 | RB | Derrick HenryBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 55%Top 24: 79% |
RB6↓ 1 | 18.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%. | |
| 7 | RB | James CookBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB6 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 51%Top 24: 76% |
RB7↑ 3 | 17.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB6 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%. | |
| 8 | RB | Ashton JeantyLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 75% |
RB8— | 16.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB35 in the middle 80%. | |
| 9 | RB | Javonte WilliamsDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 72% |
RB9— | 16.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%. | |
| 10 | RB | Jaylen WarrenPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 74% |
RB10↑ 2 | 15.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB35 in the middle 80%. | |
| 11 | RB | D'Andre SwiftCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 70% |
RB11↑ 3 | 15.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%. | |
| 12 | RB | Chuba HubbardCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 67% |
RB12NEW | 14.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%. | |
| 13 | RB | Bucky IrvingTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 32%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 68% |
RB13↑ 6 | 14.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 32%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB38 in the middle 80%. | |
| 14 | RB | Quinshon JudkinsCLEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 58% |
RB14↓ 1 | 13.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB46 in the middle 80%. | |
| 15 | RB | Rhamondre StevensonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 62% |
RB15↑ 3 | 13.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB40 in the middle 80%. | |
| 16 | RB | Bhayshul TutenJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 62% |
RB16↑ 1 | 13.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 17 | RB | Cam SkatteboNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB11 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 58% |
RB17↓ 2 | 12.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB11 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 18 | RB | Braelon AllenNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB11 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 56% |
RB18↑ 7 | 12.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB11 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 19 | RB | Emanuel WilsonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB12 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 55% |
RB19↑ 1 | 11.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB12 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB44 in the middle 80%. | |
| 20 | RB | Kyle MonangaiCHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 50% |
RB20↑ 1 | 11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 21 | RB | Tony PollardTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 53% |
RB21↑ 1 | 11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB44 in the middle 80%. | |
| 22 | RB | Jeremiyah LoveARIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 49% |
RB22↓ 6 | 11.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 23 | RB | Woody MarksHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB15 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 47% |
RB23↑ 19 | 10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB15 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB46 in the middle 80%. | |
| 24 | RB | Omarion HamptonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB15 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 45% |
RB24— | 10.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB15 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 25 | RB | Saquon BarkleyPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB16 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 41% |
RB25↑ 6 | 9.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB16 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%. | |
| 26 | RB | MarShawn LloydGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 42% |
RB26↑ 7 | 9.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 27 | RB | Alvin KamaraNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB18 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 39% |
RB27— | 9.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB18 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB54 in the middle 80%. | |
| 28 | RB | J.K. DobbinsDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB18 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 38% |
RB28↑ 4 | 9.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB18 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB50 in the middle 80%. | |
| 29 | RB | RJ HarveyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB18 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 37% |
RB29↓ 6 | 8.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB18 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB50 in the middle 80%. | |
| 30 | RB | TreVeyon HendersonNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB18 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 35% |
RB30↓ 4 | 8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB18 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB59 in the middle 80%. | |
| 31 | RB | Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB18 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 38% |
RB31↓ 1 | 8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB18 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 32 | RB | Blake CorumLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB20 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 34% |
RB32↑ 8 | 8.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB20 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB53 in the middle 80%. | |
| 33 | RB | Brian RobinsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 35% |
RB33↑ 3 | 8.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB56 in the middle 80%. | |
| 34 | RB | Keaton MitchellLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB22 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 30% |
RB34↑ 4 | 7.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB22 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 35 | RB | Tyjae SpearsTENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB24 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 25% |
RB35↑ 11 | 7.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB24 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB59 in the middle 80%. | |
| 36 | RB | Tyler AllgeierARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB24 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 25% |
RB36↑ 3 | 7.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB24 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB57 in the middle 80%. | |
| 37 | RB | Rachaad WhiteWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB24 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 26% |
RB37↓ 3 | 7.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB24 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB58 in the middle 80%. | |
| 38 | RB | Rico DowdlePIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB24 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 25% |
RB38↓ 3 | 7.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB39 at the median, RB24 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB58 in the middle 80%. | |
| 39 | RB | Kenny GainwellTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB25 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 25% |
RB39↑ 2 | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB25 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB55 in the middle 80%. | |
| 40 | RB | Pierre StrongGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB27 - RB53 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 22% |
RB40↑ 39 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB27 - RB53 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB62 in the middle 80%. | |
| 41 | RB | Dameon PiercePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB28 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 20% |
RB41↑ 26 | 6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB28 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 42 | RB | Kendre MillerNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB28 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 20% |
RB42↑ 3 | 5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB28 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB63 in the middle 80%. | |
| 43 | RB | George HolaniSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB31 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 17% |
RB43— | 5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB31 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB60 in the middle 80%. | |
| 44 | RB | Justice HillBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB32 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 16% |
RB44↑ 12 | 5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB32 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB64 in the middle 80%. | |
| 45 | RB | Ty JohnsonBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB33 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 15% |
RB45↑ 9 | 5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB33 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB70 in the middle 80%. | |
| 46 | RB | Roschon JohnsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB35 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 14% |
RB46↑ 49 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB35 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB70 in the middle 80%. | |
| 47 | RB | Kimani VidalLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB35 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 14% |
RB47↑ 10 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB35 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB67 in the middle 80%. | |
| 48 | RB | Mike Washington Jr.LV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB37 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 13% |
RB48↓ 1 | 4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB37 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 49 | RB | Kaelon BlackSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB38 - RB61 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 12% |
RB49↑ 4 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB38 - RB61 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB70 in the middle 80%. | |
| 50 | RB | Emmett JohnsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB39 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB50NEW | 4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB39 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB71 in the middle 80%. | |
| 51 | RB | Najee HarrisNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB40 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB51↓ 2 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB40 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB72 in the middle 80%. | |
| 52 | RB | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB55 at the median, RB42 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB52↓ 4 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB55 at the median, RB42 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB74 in the middle 80%. | |
| 53 | RB | Tyler GoodsonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB57 at the median, RB43 - RB69 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 9% |
RB53↑ 7 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB57 at the median, RB43 - RB69 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB78 in the middle 80%. | |
| 54 | RB | Corey KinerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB47 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB77 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB54↑ 27 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB47 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB77 in the middle 80%. | |
| 55 | RB | Kaleb JohnsonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB48 - RB71 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB55↓ 11 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB48 - RB71 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB80 in the middle 80%. | |
| 56 | RB | AJ DillonCARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB48 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
RB56NEW | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB48 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB85 in the middle 80%. | |
| 57 | RB | CJ DonaldsonNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB49 - RB69 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB77 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 5% |
RB57↑ 15 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB49 - RB69 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB77 in the middle 80%. | |
| 58 | RB | Kyle JuszczykSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB49 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB58NEW | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB49 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 59 | RB | Seth McGowanIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB51 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB59↑ 4 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB51 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB80 in the middle 80%. | |
| 60 | RB | Dare OgunbowaleLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB51 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB60↑ 27 | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB51 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 61 | RB | Carson SteelePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB67 at the median, RB53 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB61↑ 24 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB67 at the median, RB53 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 62 | RB | Jaleel McLaughlinCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB51 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB62NEW | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB51 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 63 | RB | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB55 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB82 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB63↑ 38 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB55 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB82 in the middle 80%. | |
| 64 | RB | Anthony Tyus IIICAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB56 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB64NEW | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB56 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 65 | RB | Travis HomerPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB54 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB65NEW | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB54 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB85 in the middle 80%. | |
| 66 | RB | Tyler BadieDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB55 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB66↑ 2 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB55 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB83 in the middle 80%. | |
| 67 | RB | Ray DavisBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB67 at the median, RB56 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB67↑ 7 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB67 at the median, RB56 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB85 in the middle 80%. | |
| 68 | RB | Lan LarisonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB58 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB68↑ 2 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB58 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 69 | RB | Isaiah DavisNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB59 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB69↓ 4 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB59 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 70 | RB | Brashard SmithKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB59 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB70NEW | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB59 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 71 | RB | Devin SingletaryNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB61 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB71↓ 16 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB61 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 72 | RB | Phil MafahNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB61 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB72↑ 8 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB61 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 73 | RB | Salvon AhmedCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB61 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB73NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB61 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 74 | RB | Dean ConnorsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB61 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB74NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB61 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 75 | RB | Kaytron AllenWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB63 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB75↑ 22 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB63 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 76 | RB | Jordan JamesSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB62 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB76↑ 6 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB62 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 77 | RB | Dylan LaubeLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB63 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB77NEW | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB63 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 78 | RB | Nicholas SingletonTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB66 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB78↑ 15 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB66 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB99 in the middle 80%. | |
| 79 | RB | Sean TuckerTBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB67 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB79↑ 20 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB67 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB102 in the middle 80%. | |
| 80 | RB | Craig ReynoldsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB64 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB80↑ 12 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB64 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 81 | RB | Michael CarterTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB64 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB81NEW | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB64 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 82 | RB | Emari DemercadoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB69 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB82↓ 18 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB69 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 83 | RB | Jawhar JordanHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB68 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB83NEW | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB68 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 84 | RB | Zavier ScottCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB66 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB84NEW | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB66 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 85 | RB | Ameer AbdullahJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB70 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB85↑ 9 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB70 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 86 | RB | Patrick RicardNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB71 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB58 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB86NEW | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB71 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB58 - RB100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 87 | RB | LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB70 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB60 - RB96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB87NEW | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB70 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB60 - RB96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 88 | RB | Robert Henry Jr.WAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB73 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB58 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB88↓ 15 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB73 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB58 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 89 | RB | Eric GrayCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB81 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB89↓ 12 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB81 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 90 | RB | Frank Gore Jr.BUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB78 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB90↓ 24 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB78 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 91 | RB | Breece HallNYJDDoubtful · projection includes a 7% chance of playing Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB113 at the median, RB113 - RB113 in the middle half, and RB113 - RB113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 4% |
RB91NEW | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB113 at the median, RB113 - RB113 in the middle half, and RB113 - RB113 in the middle 80%. | |
| 92 | RB | Jaydon BluePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB80 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB68 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB92NEW | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB80 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB68 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 93 | RB | Brady RussellSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB80 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB71 - RB102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB93NEW | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB80 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB71 - RB102 in the middle 80%. | |
| 94 | RB | Hunter LuepkeDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB83 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB73 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB94↑ 4 | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB83 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB73 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 95 | RB | Jonathan WardBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB80 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB68 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB95NEW | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB80 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB68 - RB106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 96 | RB | Eli HeidenreichPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB84 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB74 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB96NEW | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB84 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB74 - RB106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 97 | RB | Bam KnightARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB98 at the median, RB89 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB76 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB97NEW | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB98 at the median, RB89 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB76 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 98 | RB | Lew Nichols IIIPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB85 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB74 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB98NEW | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB85 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB74 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 99 | RB | Cody SchraderDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB100 at the median, RB90 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB77 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB99↓ 13 | 0.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB100 at the median, RB90 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB77 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 100 | RB | DJ GiddensIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB100 at the median, RB91 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB78 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB100NEW | 0.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB100 at the median, RB91 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB78 - RB110 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 6 RB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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RB8Kenneth Walker III is ranked RB1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB8 at the median, RB3 - RB18 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB29 in the middle 80%.
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RB2 Bijan RobinsonRB8Bijan Robinson is ranked RB2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB8 at the median, RB3 - RB16 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB26 in the middle 80%.
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RB10Christian McCaffrey is ranked RB3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB5 - RB20 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB31 in the middle 80%.
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RB4 Kyren WilliamsRB10Kyren Williams is ranked RB4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%.
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RB5 Jonathan TaylorRB11Jonathan Taylor is ranked RB5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB32 in the middle 80%.
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RB6 Derrick HenryRB11Derrick Henry is ranked RB6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
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RB7 James CookRB12James Cook is ranked RB7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB6 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
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RB8 Ashton JeantyRB14Ashton Jeanty is ranked RB8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
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RB9 Javonte WilliamsRB14Javonte Williams is ranked RB9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
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RB10 Jaylen WarrenRB14Jaylen Warren is ranked RB10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB7 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
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RB11 D'Andre SwiftRB15D'Andre Swift is ranked RB11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
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RB12 Chuba HubbardRB16Chuba Hubbard is ranked RB12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB13 Bucky IrvingRB16Bucky Irving is ranked RB13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
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RB14 Quinshon JudkinsRB20Quinshon Judkins is ranked RB14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
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RB15 Rhamondre StevensonRB19Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked RB15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
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RB16 Bhayshul TutenRB19Bhayshul Tuten is ranked RB16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB10 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB17 Cam SkatteboRB21Cam Skattebo is ranked RB17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB11 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB18 Braelon AllenRB22Braelon Allen is ranked RB18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB11 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB19 Emanuel WilsonRB22Emanuel Wilson is ranked RB19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB12 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB44 in the middle 80%.
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RB20 Kyle MonangaiRB24Kyle Monangai is ranked RB20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB21 Tony PollardRB23Tony Pollard is ranked RB21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB12 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB44 in the middle 80%.
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RB22 Jeremiyah LoveRB25Jeremiyah Love is ranked RB22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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RB23 Woody MarksRB26Woody Marks is ranked RB23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB15 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
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RB24 Omarion HamptonRB28Omarion Hampton is ranked RB24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB15 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Show RB25 - RB36
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RB25 Saquon BarkleyRB30Saquon Barkley is ranked RB25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB16 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
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RB26 MarShawn LloydRB29MarShawn Lloyd is ranked RB26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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RB27 Alvin KamaraRB31Alvin Kamara is ranked RB27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB18 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
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RB28 J.K. DobbinsRB30J.K. Dobbins is ranked RB28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB18 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB29 RJ HarveyRB31RJ Harvey is ranked RB29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB18 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB30 TreVeyon HendersonRB34TreVeyon Henderson is ranked RB30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB18 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
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RB32Jacory Croskey-Merritt is ranked RB31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB18 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB32 Blake CorumRB34Blake Corum is ranked RB32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB20 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
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RB33 Brian RobinsonRB35Brian Robinson is ranked RB33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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RB34 Keaton MitchellRB35Keaton Mitchell is ranked RB34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB22 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB35 Tyjae SpearsRB38Tyjae Spears is ranked RB35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB24 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
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RB36 Tyler AllgeierRB38Tyler Allgeier is ranked RB36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB24 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 78% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 58%, sportsbook props for 50%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Full PPR, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 15, 2026 21:54 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 5 board generated before that week's first kickoff (October 8, 2026). Model rankings-v1.4.3, board captured 2026-10-15.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
