HOU · Bye 8
Woody Marks
LMD RB33 for Week 4 · 7.8 projected Full PPR points · RB38 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.8 points this week, RB33. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 29% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB33
143rd by projected points
Rest of season
RB38
126th by projected points
Projected
7.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 29% at RB
Movement
↑ 1
RB34 in Week 3, RB33 now
Should you start Woody Marks in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Woody Marks RB33 for Week 4, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 29% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.12 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.17 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.16 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Woody Marks finds end zone in Week 3
USA TODAY ·
-
WATCH: Woody Marks gives Texans late lead over Colts with TD run
lufkindailynews.com ·
-
Woody Marks ineffective in 14 touches against Bengals
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Woody Marks by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Woody Marks has averaged +1.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 5.2 | 5.0 | -0.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 5.7 | 8.5 | +2.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 8.0 | 9.1 | +1.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 7.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB44. For the rest of the season LMD has him 6 spots higher, at RB38.
Preseason market: RB44 · ADP 140.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB38 +6
LMD has him 6 spots higher than his RB44 draft price.
Week 4
RB33 +11
LMD has him 11 spots higher than his RB44 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB44 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 105.6 points this season, RB38. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 7.7 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
7.7 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Woody Marks #100 in 1QB and #105 in Superflex, RB33 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#100
RB33 · tier 24 · of 297
Superflex
#105
RB33 · tier 19 · of 303
- Last season 133.1 pts 8.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 14.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 7% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.04
pick 136.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.01
half of simulations take him by pick 133
Draft range
10.09 - 14.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,544 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.01 in 53% of simulations
Pick 133 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 13.12, where he is available in 20% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 12.01 53% · 13.12 20% · 14.01 20% · 15.12 5%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.03 and 12.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.11 | 58% |
| 11.12 | 55% |
| 12.01 | 53% |
| 12.02 | 50% |
| 12.03 | 47% |
| 12.04 | 45% |
| 12.05 | 42% |
| 12.06 | 39% |
| 12.07 | 37% |
| 12.08 | 34% |
| 12.09 | 32% |
| 12.10 | 29% |
| 12.11 | 27% |
| 12.12 | 25% |
| 13.01 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.09-10.11 | 6% | 629 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.02 | 7% | 685 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 8% | 759 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 8% | 777 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 8% | 750 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 8% | 775 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 8% | 796 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 8% | 784 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 7% | 667 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | <1% | 69 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | <1% | 71 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | 1% | 128 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 1% | 141 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.08 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.11 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9544 simulations in which Woody Marks was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Woody Marks was selected in 9544 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.