LMD Fantasy Support LMD
WR

IND · Bye 13

Keenan Allen

LMD WR50 for Week 5 · 5.3 projected Standard points · WR60 rest of season

Questionable

Regular season

Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 5.3 points this week, WR50. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 19% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 3 since Week 4.

Week 5

WR50

137th by projected points

Rest of season

WR60

129th by projected points

Projected

5.3

week 5, Standard

Top 12

9%

Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 19% at WR

Movement

↓ 3

WR47 in Week 4, WR50 now

Should you start Keenan Allen in Week 5?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Keenan Allen WR50 for Week 5, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 19% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Standard scoring · Updated October 8, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Keenan Allen by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Keenan Allen has averaged +1.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Keenan Allen, Standard scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs BAL 2.3 3.2 +0.9
Wk 2 @ KC 3.1 0.5 -2.6
Wk 3 vs HOU 5.2 12.3 +7.1
Wk 4 @ WAS 5.6 Pending —
Wk 5 @ PIT 5.3 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at WR66. For the rest of the season LMD has him 6 spots higher, at WR60.

Preseason market: WR66 · ADP 146.6

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

WR60 +6

LMD has him 6 spots higher than his WR66 draft price.

Week 5

WR50 +16

LMD has him 16 spots higher than his WR66 draft price.

Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

WR66 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 67.7 points this season, WR60. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 5.4 a game over 12.953 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 15 since the Oct. 6 board.

Per game

5.4 / game

Over 12.953 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

thin

Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Keenan Allen #140 in 1QB and #142 in Superflex, WR60 at his position. Age 34.

1QB

#140

WR60 · tier 31 · of 297

Superflex

#142

WR60 · tier 25 · of 303

  • Last season 142.2 pts 8.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 8.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 25% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

14.07

pick 163.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.02

half of simulations take him by pick 170

Draft range

12.09 - 15.10

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 3,396 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Standard
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Keenan Allen.

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.02 in 84% of simulations

Pick 170 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 12.12 and 15.07.

Keenan Allen still on the board
PickAvailable
14.12 86%
15.01 85%
15.02 84%
15.03 82%
15.04 80%
15.05 79%
15.06 77%
15.07 76%
15.08 74%
15.09 72%
15.10 71%
15.11 69%
15.12 68%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Keenan Allen was selected at each pick, 12.09-12.10 through 15.09-15.10. He goes earlier than this window in 3%, later in 3%, undrafted in 66%.
Draft position distribution for Keenan Allen
PickShare of simulationsCount
12.09-12.103%296 of 10000 simulations
12.11-12.124%353 of 10000 simulations
13.01-13.02<1%4 of 10000 simulations
13.03-13.04<1%16 of 10000 simulations
13.05-13.06<1%7 of 10000 simulations
13.07-13.08<1%16 of 10000 simulations
13.09-13.10<1%13 of 10000 simulations
13.11-13.12<1%29 of 10000 simulations
14.01-14.02<1%57 of 10000 simulations
14.03-14.04<1%61 of 10000 simulations
14.05-14.06<1%77 of 10000 simulations
14.07-14.08<1%78 of 10000 simulations
14.09-14.10<1%90 of 10000 simulations
14.11-14.121%105 of 10000 simulations
15.01-15.023%317 of 10000 simulations
15.03-15.043%336 of 10000 simulations
15.05-15.063%320 of 10000 simulations
15.07-15.083%318 of 10000 simulations
15.09-15.103%313 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 3396 simulations in which Keenan Allen was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Keenan Allen was selected in 3396 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 8, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Standard 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.