TB · Bye 10
Kenny Gainwell
LMD RB35 for Week 4 · 7.5 projected Full PPR points · RB40 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.5 points this week, RB35. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 27% of simulated weeks. Up 5 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB35
147th by projected points
Rest of season
RB40
130th by projected points
Projected
7.5
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
8%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 27% at RB
Movement
↑ 5
RB40 in Week 3, RB35 now
Should you start Kenny Gainwell in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Kenny Gainwell RB35 for Week 4, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 27% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.46 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.03 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.19 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Kenny Gainwell interview: Buccaneers must keep calm to move past 0-3 start
sbnation.com ·
-
Bucs aren't backing away from Kenny Gainwell despite slow start
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Kenny Gainwell's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 100.4 to 110.4 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kenny Gainwell by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Kenny Gainwell has averaged -3.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 7.7 | 2.8 | -4.9 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 5.8 | 4.5 | -1.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 7.7 | 3.0 | -4.7 |
| Wk 4 | vs GB | 7.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB33. For the rest of the season LMD has him 7 spots lower, at RB40.
Preseason market: RB33 · ADP 92.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB40 −7
LMD has him 7 spots lower than his RB33 draft price.
Week 4
RB35 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his RB33 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB33 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 101.6 points this season, RB40. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2% of simulated seasons. That is 7.4 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
7.4 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kenny Gainwell #112 in 1QB and #116 in Superflex, RB36 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#112
RB36 · tier 25 · of 297
Superflex
#116
RB36 · tier 20 · of 303
- Last season 184.8 pts 10.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 99% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 11% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.01
pick 109.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.12
half of simulations take him by pick 108
Draft range
8.06 - 11.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,999 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.12 in 51% of simulations
Pick 108 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 10.01, where he is available in 49% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 9.12 51% · 10.01 49% · 11.12 8% · 12.01 7% · 13.12 <1% · 14.01 <1% · 15.12 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.01 and 10.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.10 | 56% |
| 9.11 | 53% |
| 9.12 | 51% |
| 10.01 | 49% |
| 10.02 | 46% |
| 10.03 | 44% |
| 10.04 | 42% |
| 10.05 | 39% |
| 10.06 | 37% |
| 10.07 | 34% |
| 10.08 | 32% |
| 10.09 | 30% |
| 10.10 | 28% |
| 10.11 | 26% |
| 10.12 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 378 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 485 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 444 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 392 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 343 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 4% | 353 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 3% | 313 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9999 simulations in which Kenny Gainwell was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kenny Gainwell was selected in 9999 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.