JAX · Bye 7
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
LMD RB55 for Week 4 · 4.3 projected Full PPR points · RB63 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.3 points this week, RB55. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 10% of simulated weeks. Down 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB55
227th by projected points
Rest of season
RB63
226th by projected points
Projected
4.3
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 10% at RB
Movement
↓ 2
RB53 in Week 3, RB55 now
Should you start Chris Rodriguez Jr. in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB55 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 10% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.43 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.57 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.15 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.15 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Why Bhayshul Tuten should not cede any Jaguars RB work to Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Sporting News ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 155.3 to 147.8 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Chris Rodriguez Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Chris Rodriguez Jr. has averaged +0.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 3.5 | 2.3 | -1.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 3.3 | 1.3 | -2.0 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 4.3 | 9.7 | +5.4 |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 4.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB54. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots lower, at RB63.
Preseason market: RB54 · ADP 156.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB63 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his RB54 draft price.
Week 4
RB55 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his RB54 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB54 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 58.2 points this season, RB63. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.3 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 8 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
4.3 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chris Rodriguez Jr. #276 in 1QB and #275 in Superflex, RB75 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#276
RB75 · tier 67 · of 297
Superflex
#275
RB75 · tier 57 · of 303
- Last season 90.5 pts 7.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 58% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 1% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.07
pick 174.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.07
half of simulations take him by pick 175
Draft range
15.02 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,494 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.07 in 88% of simulations
Pick 175 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.04 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.05 | 93% |
| 15.06 | 91% |
| 15.07 | 88% |
| 15.08 | 86% |
| 15.09 | 84% |
| 15.10 | 82% |
| 15.11 | 80% |
| 15.12 | 77% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.02 | 1% | 126 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 208 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 238 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 200 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 239 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2494 simulations in which Chris Rodriguez Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 3%
- Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. was selected in 2494 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.