PHI · Bye 10
Tank Bigsby
LMD RB58 for Week 4 · 3.8 projected Full PPR points · RB66 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.8 points this week, RB58. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 7% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 9 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB58
245th by projected points
Rest of season
RB66
238th by projected points
Projected
3.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 7% at RB
Movement
↓ 9
RB49 in Week 3, RB58 now
Should you start Tank Bigsby in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Tank Bigsby RB58 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 7% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.08 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.02 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Tank Bigsby's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 162.4 to 172.9 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Tank Bigsby has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 3.2 | 0.3 | -2.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 2.2 | 11.8 | +9.6 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 5.1 | -0.5 | -5.6 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAR | 3.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB57. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots lower, at RB66.
Preseason market: RB57 · ADP 159.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB66 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his RB57 draft price.
Week 4
RB58 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his RB57 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB57 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 55.8 points this season, RB66. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.7 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 10 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
3.7 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tank Bigsby #234 in 1QB and #242 in Superflex, RB65 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#234
RB65 · tier 52 · of 297
Superflex
#242
RB65 · tier 46 · of 303
- Last season 52.3 pts 3.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 88% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 2% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 178.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.10
half of simulations take him by pick 178
Draft range
15.08 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 862 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.10 in 97% of simulations
Pick 178 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.09 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.08 | >99% |
| 15.09 | 98% |
| 15.10 | 97% |
| 15.11 | 96% |
| 15.12 | 94% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 2 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 6 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 16 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 46 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 79 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 1% | 123 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 171 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 232 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 862 simulations in which Tank Bigsby was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX 3%
- Cam Ward QB · TEN 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 3%
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 2%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tank Bigsby was selected in 862 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.