NYG · Bye 8
Theo Johnson
LMD TE49 for Week 4 · 3.5 projected Full PPR points · TE52 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.5 points this week, TE49. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 13% of simulated weeks. Up 11 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE49
261st by projected points
Rest of season
TE52
259th by projected points
Projected
3.5
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 13% at TE
Movement
↑ 11
TE60 in Week 3, TE49 now
Should you start Theo Johnson in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Theo Johnson TE49 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 4% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE49 vs TE57 +8
LMD has him TE49. The fantasy draft market has him TE57, 8 places lower.
Our projection is higher than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.51 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.21 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.10 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Theo Johnson is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Theo Johnson has averaged -0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DAL | 2.8 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 0.0 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs TEN | 3.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs ARI | 3.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 51.5 points this season, TE52. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.5 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 9 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
3.5 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Theo Johnson #157 in 1QB and #157 in Superflex, TE19 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#157
TE19 · tier 35 · of 297
Superflex
#157
TE19 · tier 29 · of 303
- Last season 105.3 pts 7.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 15% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.06
pick 162.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.12
half of simulations take him by pick 168
Draft range
12.10 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,749 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.12 in 81% of simulations
Pick 168 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 15.01, where he is available in 80% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 14.12 81% · 15.01 80%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.12 and 15.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.10 | 83% |
| 14.11 | 82% |
| 14.12 | 81% |
| 15.01 | 80% |
| 15.02 | 79% |
| 15.03 | 78% |
| 15.04 | 76% |
| 15.05 | 75% |
| 15.06 | 74% |
| 15.07 | 72% |
| 15.08 | 70% |
| 15.09 | 69% |
| 15.10 | 67% |
| 15.11 | 66% |
| 15.12 | 64% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.10-12.11 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 45 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 46 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 46 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 45 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 61 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 82 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | <1% | 98 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | <1% | 91 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 103 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 132 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 152 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 2% | 218 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 3% | 265 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 3% | 303 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 154 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3749 simulations in which Theo Johnson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Jake Bates K · DET 2%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 4%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF 2%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Theo Johnson was selected in 3749 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.