LAC · Bye 7
Keaton Mitchell
LMD RB45 for Week 4 · 4.4 projected Half PPR points · RB55 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.4 points this week, RB45. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 12% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 13 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB45
186th by projected points
Rest of season
RB55
171st by projected points
Projected
4.4
week 4, Half PPR
Top 12
3%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 12% at RB
Movement
↑ 13
RB58 in Week 3, RB45 now
Should you start Keaton Mitchell in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Keaton Mitchell RB45 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 12% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB45 vs RB59 +14
LMD has him RB45. The fantasy draft market has him RB59, 14 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.20 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.29 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.05 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Keaton Mitchell is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Keaton Mitchell has averaged +2.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 3.5 | 0.9 | -2.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 3.4 | 4.4 | +1.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 3.0 | 12.2 | +9.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ SEA | 4.4 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 63.7 points this season, RB55. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.5 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 7 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
4.5 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Keaton Mitchell #297 in Superflex. Age 24.
1QB
--
Not ranked on this board
Superflex
#297
RB81 · tier 67 · of 303
- Last season 50.9 pts 3.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 54% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 4% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.11
pick 178.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.11
half of simulations take him by pick 179
Draft range
15.09 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 388 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.11 in >99% of simulations
Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.11 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | >99% |
| 15.11 | >99% |
| 15.12 | 98% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 4 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 9 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 24 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 1% | 107 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 388 simulations in which Keaton Mitchell was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 4%
- Sam Darnold QB · SEA 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
Usually taken just after
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 2%
- Colby Parkinson TE · LAR 2%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Keaton Mitchell was selected in 388 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.