NO · Bye 8
Alvin Kamara
LMD RB23 for Week 4 · 10.2 projected Full PPR points · RB25 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.2 points this week, RB23. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 41% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 10 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB23
99th by projected points
Rest of season
RB25
75th by projected points
Projected
10.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
19%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 41% at RB
Movement
↑ 10
RB33 in Week 3, RB23 now
Should you start Alvin Kamara in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Alvin Kamara RB23 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 41% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB23 vs RB44 +21
LMD has him RB23. The fantasy draft market has him RB44, 21 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.40 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.03 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.34 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy football Week 3 RB preview: Travis Etienne appears to have an Alvin Kamara problem
CBS Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Alvin Kamara by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Alvin Kamara has averaged -0.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 2.4 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 4.4 | 7.2 | +2.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 8.9 | 5.1 | -3.8 |
| Wk 4 | vs ATL | 10.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB48. For the rest of the season LMD has him 23 spots higher, at RB25.
Preseason market: RB48 · ADP 148.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB25 +23
LMD has him 23 spots higher than his RB48 draft price.
Week 4
RB23 +25
LMD has him 25 spots higher than his RB48 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB48 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 139.2 points this season, RB25. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 38% of simulated seasons. That is 10.1 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
10.1 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 38%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Alvin Kamara #216 in 1QB and #217 in Superflex, RB56 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#216
RB56 · tier 47 · of 297
Superflex
#217
RB56 · tier 40 · of 303
- Last season 84.2 pts 7.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 72% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 18.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 16% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.10
pick 154.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
13.07
half of simulations take him by pick 151
Draft range
12.02 - 15.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,031 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 13.07 in 65% of simulations
Pick 151 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 14.06, where he is available in 59% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 13.07 65% · 14.06 59% · 15.07 40%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.07 and 15.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.05 | 66% |
| 13.06 | 65% |
| 13.07 | 65% |
| 13.08 | 65% |
| 13.09 | 64% |
| 13.10 | 64% |
| 13.11 | 64% |
| 13.12 | 63% |
| 14.01 | 63% |
| 14.02 | 62% |
| 14.03 | 61% |
| 14.04 | 60% |
| 14.05 | 60% |
| 14.06 | 59% |
| 14.07 | 58% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.02-12.03 | 5% | 499 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 5% | 519 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 6% | 552 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 84 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 61 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 88 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 1% | 130 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 2% | 154 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 2% | 181 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 337 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7031 simulations in which Alvin Kamara was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 2%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Fernando Mendoza QB · LV 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Alvin Kamara was selected in 7031 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.