ATL · Bye 11
Brian Robinson
LMD RB42 for Week 4 · 6.0 projected Full PPR points · RB50 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.0 points this week, RB42. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 19% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 4 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB42
172nd by projected points
Rest of season
RB50
153rd by projected points
Projected
6.0
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
5%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 19% at RB
Movement
↑ 4
RB46 in Week 3, RB42 now
Should you start Brian Robinson in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Brian Robinson RB42 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 19% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.12 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.21 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.00 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.31 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Brian Robinson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 161.3 to 147.4 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Brian Robinson has averaged +3.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PIT | 3.3 | 3.1 | -0.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs CAR | 3.9 | 8.7 | +4.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ GB | 6.0 | 11.0 | +5.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ NO | 6.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB59. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots higher, at RB50.
Preseason market: RB59 · ADP 161.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB50 +9
LMD has him 9 spots higher than his RB59 draft price.
Week 4
RB42 +17
LMD has him 17 spots higher than his RB59 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB59 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 84.3 points this season, RB50. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 6.0 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
6.0 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brian Robinson #225 in 1QB and #229 in Superflex, RB60 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#225
RB60 · tier 50 · of 297
Superflex
#229
RB60 · tier 42 · of 303
- Last season 58.5 pts 3.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 10.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 4% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.07
pick 103.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.06
half of simulations take him by pick 102
Draft range
7.12 - 11.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.06 in 51% of simulations
Pick 102 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 10.07, where he is available in 22% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 9.06 51% · 10.07 22% · 11.06 8% · 12.07 1% · 13.06 <1% · 14.07 <1% · 15.06 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.07 and 10.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.04 | 56% |
| 9.05 | 53% |
| 9.06 | 51% |
| 9.07 | 49% |
| 9.08 | 46% |
| 9.09 | 44% |
| 9.10 | 42% |
| 9.11 | 39% |
| 9.12 | 37% |
| 10.01 | 35% |
| 10.02 | 32% |
| 10.03 | 30% |
| 10.04 | 28% |
| 10.05 | 26% |
| 10.06 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.12-8.01 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 4% | 399 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 499 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 415 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 3% | 337 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 279 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 2% | 247 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Brian Robinson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brian Robinson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.