LMD Fantasy Support LMD
RB

ARI · Bye 14

Tyler Allgeier

LMD RB39 for Week 4 · 6.6 projected Full PPR points · RB48 rest of season

Regular season

Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 6.6 points this week, RB39. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 21% of simulated weeks. Up 3 since Week 3.

Week 4

RB39

161st by projected points

Rest of season

RB48

151st by projected points

Projected

6.6

week 4, Full PPR

Top 12

5%

Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 21% at RB

Movement

↑ 3

RB42 in Week 3, RB39 now

Should you start Tyler Allgeier in Week 4?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Tyler Allgeier RB39 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 21% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All RB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyler Allgeier by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Tyler Allgeier has averaged +0.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Tyler Allgeier, Full PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ LAC 4.4 9.0 +4.6
Wk 2 vs SEA 5.5 3.9 -1.6
Wk 3 @ SF 7.0 4.9 -2.1
Wk 4 @ NYG 6.6 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at RB50. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots higher, at RB48.

Preseason market: RB50 · ADP 154.9

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

RB48 +2

LMD has him 2 spots higher than his RB50 draft price.

Week 4

RB39 +11

LMD has him 11 spots higher than his RB50 draft price.

Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

RB50 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 86.3 points this season, RB48. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 6.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 1 since the Oct. 1 board.

Per game

6.6 / game

Over 14 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB

Market input

thin

Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Tyler Allgeier #147 in 1QB and #149 in Superflex, RB42 at his position. Age 26.

1QB

#147

RB42 · tier 33 · of 297

Superflex

#149

RB42 · tier 27 · of 303

  • Last season 116.0 pts 6.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 9.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

10.03

pick 111.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

10.02

half of simulations take him by pick 110

Draft range

8.08 - 11.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,995 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams
Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 10.02 in 51% of simulations

Pick 110 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 11.11, where he is available in 11% of simulations.

Slot 11's remaining turns: 10.02 51% · 11.11 11% · 12.02 8% · 13.11 <1% · 14.02 <1% · 15.11 <1%

The middle half of simulations take him between 9.04 and 11.01.

Tyler Allgeier still on the board
PickAvailable
9.12 56%
10.01 54%
10.02 51%
10.03 48%
10.04 46%
10.05 44%
10.06 41%
10.07 39%
10.08 36%
10.09 34%
10.10 32%
10.11 30%
10.12 28%
11.01 26%
11.02 25%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Tyler Allgeier was selected at each pick, 8.08-8.09 through 11.10-11.11. He goes earlier than this window in 9%, later in 10%, undrafted in <1%.
Draft position distribution for Tyler Allgeier
PickShare of simulationsCount
8.08-8.094%381 of 10000 simulations
8.10-8.114%383 of 10000 simulations
8.12-9.014%398 of 10000 simulations
9.02-9.034%425 of 10000 simulations
9.04-9.054%440 of 10000 simulations
9.06-9.075%499 of 10000 simulations
9.08-9.095%461 of 10000 simulations
9.10-9.115%490 of 10000 simulations
9.12-10.015%504 of 10000 simulations
10.02-10.035%528 of 10000 simulations
10.04-10.055%477 of 10000 simulations
10.06-10.075%494 of 10000 simulations
10.08-10.094%419 of 10000 simulations
10.10-10.114%394 of 10000 simulations
10.12-11.014%350 of 10000 simulations
11.02-11.034%380 of 10000 simulations
11.04-11.053%327 of 10000 simulations
11.06-11.073%267 of 10000 simulations
11.08-11.093%263 of 10000 simulations
11.10-11.112%223 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9995 simulations in which Tyler Allgeier was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Tyler Allgeier was selected in 9995 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Full PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.