ARI · Bye 14
James Conner
James Conner comes off the board at 10.08 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 10.07.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated October 1, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
James Conner was ruled IR.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAC | 2.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD does not currently assign James Conner a differentiated dynasty rank. Age 31.
The model prices him at replacement level for the next three seasons and does not separate him from the several hundred players it prices the same way, so it assigns no rank rather than an invented one.
- Last season 29.3 pts 9.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 52% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.08
pick 116.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.07
half of simulations take him by pick 115
Draft range
9.01 - 12.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,986 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.07 in 51% of simulations
Pick 115 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 11.06, where he is available in 27% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 10.07 51% · 11.06 27% · 12.07 8% · 13.06 3% · 14.07 2% · 15.06 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.08 and 11.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.05 | 56% |
| 10.06 | 54% |
| 10.07 | 51% |
| 10.08 | 49% |
| 10.09 | 46% |
| 10.10 | 44% |
| 10.11 | 42% |
| 10.12 | 40% |
| 11.01 | 38% |
| 11.02 | 35% |
| 11.03 | 33% |
| 11.04 | 31% |
| 11.05 | 29% |
| 11.06 | 27% |
| 11.07 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 401 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 477 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 437 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 4% | 448 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 2% | 242 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9986 simulations in which James Conner was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 2%
- Michael Pittman WR · PIT 2%
- Jayden Reed WR · GB 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
- Jordan Addison WR · MIN 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
James Conner was selected in 9986 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.