PIT · Bye 9 · Rookie
Germie Bernard
LMD WR114 for Week 3 · 3.1 projected Half PPR points · WR134 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.1 points this week, WR114. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 3% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
WR114
221st by projected points
Rest of season
WR134
246th by projected points
Projected
3.1
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 3% at WR
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at WR in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-5.26 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Positive+1.39 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Negative-0.53 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Germie Bernard by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Germie Bernard has averaged +2.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 3.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 2.9 | 5.5 | +2.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 3.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 54.9 points this season, WR134. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.1 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 40 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
3.1 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Germie Bernard #132 in 1QB and #135 in Superflex, WR56 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#132
WR56 · tier 29 · of 297 · rookie 13 of 52
Superflex
#135
WR56 · tier 24 · of 303 · rookie 13 of 52
- Draft capital Round 2, pick 47 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.10
pick 129.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.07
half of simulations take him by pick 127
Draft range
10.04 - 13.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,980 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Germie Bernard.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.07 in 52% of simulations
Pick 127 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 12.06, where he is available in 28% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 11.07 52% · 12.06 28% · 13.07 11% · 14.06 3% · 15.07 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.10 and 12.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.05 | 58% |
| 11.06 | 55% |
| 11.07 | 52% |
| 11.08 | 50% |
| 11.09 | 48% |
| 11.10 | 45% |
| 11.11 | 43% |
| 11.12 | 40% |
| 12.01 | 38% |
| 12.02 | 36% |
| 12.03 | 33% |
| 12.04 | 31% |
| 12.05 | 30% |
| 12.06 | 28% |
| 12.07 | 26% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 529 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 6% | 570 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 529 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 547 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 5% | 502 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 4% | 415 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 2% | 231 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | 2% | 207 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9980 simulations in which Germie Bernard was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Keon Coleman WR · BUF 2%
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 2%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 2%
Usually taken just after
- Chimere Dike WR · TEN 2%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 2%
- Keenan Allen WR · IND 2%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Germie Bernard was selected in 9980 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.