LV · Bye 13 · Rookie
Fernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza comes off the board at 11.09 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 11.07.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated November 5, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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“We put him through as much stress as we can": Raiders’ Klint Kubiak reveals what Fernando Mendoza must prove before taking over from Kirk Cousins
timesofindia.indiatimes.com ·
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Raiders Trade Pitch Sends Kirk Cousins to Ravens to Start Fernando Mendoza Era
Yahoo Sports ·
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AFC Notes: Chris Jones, Fernando Mendoza, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders
yardbarker.com ·
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NFC executive thinks Raiders could keep Maxx Crosby through trade deadline due to Fernando Mendoza
yardbarker.com ·
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Raiders' Mark Davis comments on ‘pressure’ to play Fernando Mendoza over Kirk Cousins
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Fernando Mendoza by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs MIA | 5.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ LAC | 9.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ NO | 15.4 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | — | — | 2.2 | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Fernando Mendoza #52 in 1QB and #28 in Superflex, QB12 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#52
QB12 · tier 15 · of 300 · rookie 4 of 52
Superflex
#28
QB12 · tier 7 · of 307 · rookie 2 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 1 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.09
pick 129.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.07
half of simulations take him by pick 127
Draft range
10.02 - 14.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,632 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.07 in 52% of simulations
Pick 127 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 12.06, where he is available in 27% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 11.07 52% · 12.06 27% · 13.07 14% · 14.06 13% · 15.07 7%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.08 and 12.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.05 | 57% |
| 11.06 | 54% |
| 11.07 | 52% |
| 11.08 | 50% |
| 11.09 | 47% |
| 11.10 | 45% |
| 11.11 | 42% |
| 11.12 | 40% |
| 12.01 | 38% |
| 12.02 | 36% |
| 12.03 | 34% |
| 12.04 | 31% |
| 12.05 | 29% |
| 12.06 | 27% |
| 12.07 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.02-10.04 | 6% | 601 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.07 | 6% | 643 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.10 | 7% | 722 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-11.01 | 7% | 701 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.04 | 7% | 709 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.07 | 7% | 712 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 7% | 718 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 7% | 655 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 7% | 673 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 6% | 614 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 3% | 305 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | <1% | 6 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | <1% | 11 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | <1% | 39 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9632 simulations in which Fernando Mendoza was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Cam Ward QB · TEN 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
- Tyler Shough QB · NO 2%
- Cam Ward QB · TEN 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Fernando Mendoza was selected in 9632 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.