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WR

BUF · Bye 7

DJ Moore

LMD WR38 for Week 5 · 9.9 projected Full PPR points · WR45 rest of season

Questionable

Regular season

Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 9.9 points this week, WR38. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 25% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 10 since Week 4.

Week 5

WR38

107th by projected points

Rest of season

WR45

92nd by projected points

Projected

9.9

week 5, Full PPR

Top 12

13%

Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 25% at WR

Movement

↓ 10

WR28 in Week 4, WR38 now

Should you start DJ Moore in Week 5?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks DJ Moore WR38 for Week 5, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 25% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

LMD vs the draft market

WR38 vs WR25 -13

LMD has him WR38. The fantasy draft market has him WR25, 13 places higher.

Our projection is lower than the outside forecast.

Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to DJ Moore by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 4 completed games DJ Moore has averaged -0.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for DJ Moore, Full PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ HOU 8.7 21.0 +12.3
Wk 2 vs DET 10.6 -0.1 -10.7
Wk 3 vs LAC 7.5 12.7 +5.2
Wk 4 vs NE 11.3 2.7 -8.6
Wk 5 @ LAR 9.9 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at WR24. For the rest of the season LMD has him 21 spots lower, at WR45.

Preseason market: WR24 · ADP 47.7

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

WR45 −21

LMD has him 21 spots lower than his WR24 draft price.

Week 5

WR38 −14

LMD has him 14 spots lower than his WR24 draft price.

Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

WR24 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 122.8 points this season, WR45. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 8% of simulated seasons. That is 10.0 a game over 13 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 1 since the Oct. 6 board.

Per game

10.0 / game

Over 13 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 8%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has DJ Moore #90 in 1QB and #93 in Superflex, WR36 at his position. Age 29.

1QB

#90

WR36 · tier 22 · of 297

Superflex

#93

WR36 · tier 17 · of 303

  • Last season 147.2 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

5.12

pick 59.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

5.12

half of simulations take him by pick 60

Draft range

4.09 - 7.03

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in every one

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams
Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 5.12 in 51% of simulations

Pick 60 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 6.01, where he is available in 48% of simulations.

Slot 12's remaining turns: 5.12 51% · 6.01 48% · 7.12 2% · 8.01 1% · 9.12 0%

The middle half of simulations take him between 5.03 and 6.08.

DJ Moore still on the board
PickAvailable
5.10 57%
5.11 54%
5.12 51%
6.01 48%
6.02 44%
6.03 41%
6.04 38%
6.05 35%
6.06 32%
6.07 29%
6.08 27%
6.09 24%
6.10 22%
6.11 19%
6.12 17%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which DJ Moore was selected at each pick, 4.09-4.10 through 7.03. He goes earlier than this window in 9%, later in 9%.
Draft position distribution for DJ Moore
PickShare of simulationsCount
4.09-4.104%423 of 10000 simulations
4.11-4.125%486 of 10000 simulations
5.01-5.025%489 of 10000 simulations
5.03-5.046%565 of 10000 simulations
5.05-5.066%580 of 10000 simulations
5.07-5.086%592 of 10000 simulations
5.09-5.106%608 of 10000 simulations
5.11-5.126%601 of 10000 simulations
6.01-6.026%643 of 10000 simulations
6.03-6.046%596 of 10000 simulations
6.05-6.066%613 of 10000 simulations
6.07-6.085%501 of 10000 simulations
6.09-6.105%509 of 10000 simulations
6.11-6.125%464 of 10000 simulations
7.01-7.024%391 of 10000 simulations
7.032%160 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 10000 simulations in which DJ Moore was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

DJ Moore was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 8, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Full PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.