TEN · Bye 9 · Rookie
Carnell Tate
LMD WR20 for Week 5 · 12.5 projected Full PPR points · WR24 rest of season
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.5 points this week, WR20. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 39% of simulated weeks. Up 13 since Week 4.
Week 5
WR20
65th by projected points
Rest of season
WR24
45th by projected points
Projected
12.5
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
19%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 39% at WR
Movement
↑ 13
WR33 in Week 4, WR20 now
Should you start Carnell Tate in Week 5?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Carnell Tate WR20 for Week 5, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 39% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.16 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.79 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
No Laughing Matter: Carnell Tate Can’t Let One Mistake Define His Breakout Game
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Titans Silver Linings Report: Cam Ward, Carnell Tate, and the O-Line deliver real bright spots in Week 4 loss to Ravens
yardbarker.com ·
-
Carnell Tate continued leading Titans WRs in snaps vs. Ravens
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Carnell Tate posts game-high 58 yards
USA TODAY ·
-
Carnell Tate not a big factor in Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Carnell Tate by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Carnell Tate has averaged +2.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NYJ | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs PHI | 7.8 | 5.7 | -2.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ NYG | 9.8 | 11.8 | +2.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ BAL | 10.9 | 21.5 | +10.6 |
| Wk 5 | vs HOU | 12.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR39. For the rest of the season LMD has him 15 spots higher, at WR24.
Preseason market: WR39 · ADP 79.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR24 +15
LMD has him 15 spots higher than his WR39 draft price.
Week 5
WR20 +19
LMD has him 19 spots higher than his WR39 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR39 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 158.2 points this season, WR24. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 47% of simulated seasons. That is 12.4 a game over 13 remaining games. Down 8 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
12.4 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 47%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Carnell Tate #23 in 1QB and #32 in Superflex, WR7 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 21.
1QB
#23
WR7 · tier 9 · of 297 · rookie 2 of 52
Superflex
#32
WR7 · tier 8 · of 303 · rookie 3 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 4 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.05
pick 65.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.05
half of simulations take him by pick 65
Draft range
5.01 - 7.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.05 in 53% of simulations
Pick 65 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 7.08, where he is available in 13% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 6.05 53% · 7.08 13% · 8.05 2% · 9.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.08 and 7.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.03 | 60% |
| 6.04 | 56% |
| 6.05 | 53% |
| 6.06 | 50% |
| 6.07 | 47% |
| 6.08 | 44% |
| 6.09 | 41% |
| 6.10 | 38% |
| 6.11 | 35% |
| 6.12 | 32% |
| 7.01 | 29% |
| 7.02 | 26% |
| 7.03 | 24% |
| 7.04 | 21% |
| 7.05 | 19% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.01-5.02 | 4% | 350 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 4% | 373 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 6% | 556 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 6% | 625 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 6% | 639 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 6% | 584 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 6% | 622 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 6% | 582 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 5% | 549 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09 | 2% | 168 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Carnell Tate was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
- DJ Moore WR · BUF 3%
- Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 3%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
Usually taken just after
- Rome Odunze WR · CHI 3%
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 3%
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
- Jordyn Tyson WR · NO 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Carnell Tate was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.