PIT · Bye 9
Jaylen Warren
LMD RB15 for Week 4 · 14.1 projected Full PPR points · RB17 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 14.1 points this week, RB15. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 64% of simulated weeks. Up 7 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB15
57th by projected points
Rest of season
RB17
37th by projected points
Projected
14.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
35%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 64% at RB
Movement
↑ 7
RB22 in Week 3, RB15 now
Should you start Jaylen Warren in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jaylen Warren RB15 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 64% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.99 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.78 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.67 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal · Not requested
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Steelers offensive snap counts, Week 4: Jaylen Warren dominates backfield
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Why Steelers abandoned Jaylen Warren and heavy sets vs. Browns
cumberlink.com ·
-
Jaylen Warren Week 4 Fantasy Outlook: What Rico Dowdle’s Absence Changes
yardbarker.com ·
-
Jaylen Warren Headlines Perfect Fantasy Football DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown Lineup for Thursday Night Football
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Steelers 4 Downs: In his first game as an everydown back, Jaylen Warren earns plaudits
triblive.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jaylen Warren by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Jaylen Warren has averaged +4.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 8.8 | 10.3 | +1.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 9.3 | 9.7 | +0.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 9.1 | 20.6 | +11.5 |
| Wk 4 | @ CLE | 15.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB25. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots higher, at RB17.
Preseason market: RB25 · ADP 63.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB17 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his RB25 draft price.
Week 4
RB15 +10
LMD has him 10 spots higher than his RB25 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB25 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 188.2 points this season, RB17. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 36% · Top 24: 92% of simulated seasons. That is 14.3 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 8 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
14.3 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 36% · Top 24: 92%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jaylen Warren #80 in 1QB and #83 in Superflex, RB26 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#80
RB26 · tier 20 · of 297
Superflex
#83
RB26 · tier 15 · of 303
- Last season 197.1 pts 12.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 14.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 11% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.07
pick 66.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.07
half of simulations take him by pick 67
Draft range
5.02 - 7.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.07 in 52% of simulations
Pick 67 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 7.06, where he is available in 20% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 6.07 52% · 7.06 20% · 8.07 2% · 9.06 <1% · 10.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.10 and 7.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.05 | 58% |
| 6.06 | 55% |
| 6.07 | 52% |
| 6.08 | 49% |
| 6.09 | 46% |
| 6.10 | 43% |
| 6.11 | 39% |
| 6.12 | 37% |
| 7.01 | 34% |
| 7.02 | 31% |
| 7.03 | 29% |
| 7.04 | 26% |
| 7.05 | 23% |
| 7.06 | 20% |
| 7.07 | 18% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.02-5.03 | 3% | 281 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04-5.05 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 4% | 403 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 6% | 579 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 6% | 596 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 6% | 644 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 534 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Jaylen Warren was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 3%
- Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 3%
Usually taken just after
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
- Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 3%
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jaylen Warren was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.