TEN · Bye 9
Calvin Ridley
LMD WR85 for Week 3 · 3.9 projected Standard points · WR107 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.9 points this week, WR85. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 10% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR85
161st by projected points
Rest of season
WR107
194th by projected points
Projected
3.9
week 3, Standard
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 10% at WR
Movement
↓ 3
WR82 in Week 2, WR85 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.04 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.14 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Calvin Ridley has averaged +0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NYJ | 3.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs PHI | 2.6 | 3.5 | +0.9 |
| Wk 3 | @ NYG | 3.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 56.7 points this season, WR107. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.9 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 15 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
3.9 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Calvin Ridley #284 in 1QB and #290 in Superflex, WR114 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#284
WR114 · tier 73 · of 297
Superflex
#290
WR114 · tier 63 · of 303
- Last season 38.8 pts 5.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 71% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.05
pick 148.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.10
half of simulations take him by pick 142
Draft range
11.05 - 15.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,905 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.10 in 66% of simulations
Pick 142 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 13.03, where he is available in 59% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 12.10 66% · 13.03 59% · 14.10 54% · 15.03 49%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.01 and 15.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.08 | 70% |
| 12.09 | 68% |
| 12.10 | 66% |
| 12.11 | 63% |
| 12.12 | 61% |
| 13.01 | 59% |
| 13.02 | 59% |
| 13.03 | 59% |
| 13.04 | 59% |
| 13.05 | 59% |
| 13.06 | 58% |
| 13.07 | 58% |
| 13.08 | 58% |
| 13.09 | 58% |
| 13.10 | 58% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.05-11.07 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 4% | 407 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 6% | 583 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 6% | 640 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | <1% | 17 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | <1% | 17 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | <1% | 39 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | <1% | 67 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.07 | 1% | 130 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.10 | 2% | 164 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-15.01 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.04 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.07 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 186 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6905 simulations in which Calvin Ridley was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
Usually taken just after
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Calvin Ridley was selected in 6905 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.