WAS · Bye 7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
LMD RB26 for Week 4 · 10.1 projected Full PPR points · RB26 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.1 points this week, RB26. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Up 9 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB26
105th by projected points
Rest of season
RB26
77th by projected points
Projected
10.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
18%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 45% at RB
Movement
↑ 9
RB35 in Week 3, RB26 now
Should you start Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB26 for Week 4, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 45% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB26 vs RB41 +15
LMD has him RB26. The fantasy draft market has him RB41, 15 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.24 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.04 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.23 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.95 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Austin Ekeler fantasy impact on Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Kaytron Allen
Yahoo Sports ·
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Jacory Croskey-Merritt posts poor average in Week 3
USA TODAY ·
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Commanders are hoping Jacory Croskey-Merritt can run all over the Cowboys
fredericknewspost.com ·
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Commanders are hoping Jacory Croskey-Merritt can run all over the Cowboys
lethbridgeherald.com ·
-
STATUS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jacory Croskey-Merritt by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged +1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 6.1 | 12.6 | +6.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 6.1 | 5.8 | -0.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 8.6 | 5.3 | -3.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs IND | 10.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB40. For the rest of the season LMD has him 14 spots higher, at RB26.
Preseason market: RB40 · ADP 115.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB26 +14
LMD has him 14 spots higher than his RB40 draft price.
Week 4
RB26 +14
LMD has him 14 spots higher than his RB40 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB40 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 138.7 points this season, RB26. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 36% of simulated seasons. That is 10.2 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 3 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
10.2 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 36%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jacory Croskey-Merritt #92 in 1QB and #96 in Superflex, RB29 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#92
RB29 · tier 22 · of 297
Superflex
#96
RB29 · tier 17 · of 303
- Last season 135.8 pts 8.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 11.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.04
pick 124.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.02
half of simulations take him by pick 122
Draft range
9.09 - 12.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,940 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 122 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 12.11, where he is available in 10% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 11.02 52% · 12.11 10% · 13.02 8% · 14.11 4% · 15.02 3%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.04 and 12.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.12 | 56% |
| 11.01 | 54% |
| 11.02 | 52% |
| 11.03 | 50% |
| 11.04 | 47% |
| 11.05 | 45% |
| 11.06 | 43% |
| 11.07 | 40% |
| 11.08 | 38% |
| 11.09 | 35% |
| 11.10 | 33% |
| 11.11 | 31% |
| 11.12 | 28% |
| 12.01 | 26% |
| 12.02 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 449 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 3% | 339 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 3% | 296 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 2% | 239 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9940 simulations in which Jacory Croskey-Merritt was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was selected in 9940 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.