ATL · Bye 11
Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa comes off the board at 12.04 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 12.03.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Tua Tagovailoa was listed as Questionable.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PIT | 9.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs CAR | 6.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tua Tagovailoa #124 in 1QB and #106 in Superflex, QB25 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#124
QB25 · tier 28 · of 297
Superflex
#106
QB25 · tier 19 · of 303
- Last season 160.7 pts 11.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 81% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 31.2 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.04
pick 135.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.03
half of simulations take him by pick 135
Draft range
10.03 - 14.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,893 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Tua Tagovailoa.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.03 in 51% of simulations
Pick 135 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 13.10, where he is available in 20% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 12.03 51% · 13.10 20% · 14.03 14% · 15.10 2%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.01 and 13.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.01 | 55% |
| 12.02 | 53% |
| 12.03 | 51% |
| 12.04 | 49% |
| 12.05 | 47% |
| 12.06 | 46% |
| 12.07 | 44% |
| 12.08 | 42% |
| 12.09 | 41% |
| 12.10 | 39% |
| 12.11 | 37% |
| 12.12 | 35% |
| 13.01 | 34% |
| 13.02 | 32% |
| 13.03 | 30% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.03-10.05 | 3% | 322 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.08 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.11 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.02 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 6% | 556 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 6% | 579 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | 5% | 497 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9893 simulations in which Tua Tagovailoa was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ty Simpson QB · LAR 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
- Kaelon Black RB · SF 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Daniel Jones QB · IND 2%
- Kaelon Black RB · SF 2%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tua Tagovailoa was selected in 9893 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.