DEN · Bye 10
RJ Harvey
LMD RB28 for Week 4 · 9.4 projected Full PPR points · RB31 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.4 points this week, RB28. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 16% · Top 24: 37% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 8 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB28
110th by projected points
Rest of season
RB31
95th by projected points
Projected
9.4
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
16%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 37% at RB
Movement
↑ 8
RB36 in Week 3, RB28 now
Should you start RJ Harvey in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks RJ Harvey RB28 for Week 4, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 37% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.44 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.12 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.31 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Broncos get a boost as tailbacks J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey appear ready to lead charge against Rams
mymotherlode.com ·
-
Broncos get a boost as tailbacks J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey appear ready to lead charge against Rams
seattlepi.com ·
-
J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey are back; Jonah Coleman DNP at Thursday’s practice
Yahoo Sports ·
-
RJ Harvey returns to practice
USA TODAY ·
-
Jonah Coleman DNP at practice; both Marvin Mims and RJ Harvey returned
newspub.live ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to RJ Harvey by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games RJ Harvey has averaged +2.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 6.1 | 8.1 | +2.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs JAX | 5.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 8.5 | 10.7 | +2.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ SF | 9.4 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB35. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots higher, at RB31.
Preseason market: RB35 · ADP 94.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB31 +4
LMD has him 4 spots higher than his RB35 draft price.
Week 4
RB28 +7
LMD has him 7 spots higher than his RB35 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB35 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 124.1 points this season, RB31. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 17% of simulated seasons. That is 9.0 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
9.0 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 17%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has RJ Harvey #29 in 1QB and #40 in Superflex, RB12 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#29
RB12 · tier 11 · of 297
Superflex
#40
RB12 · tier 9 · of 303
- Last season 183.1 pts 10.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 12.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.12
pick 71.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.12
half of simulations take him by pick 72
Draft range
5.07 - 8.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.12 in 51% of simulations
Pick 72 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 7.01, where he is available in 48% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 6.12 51% · 7.01 48% · 8.12 2% · 9.01 2% · 10.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.03 and 7.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.10 | 57% |
| 6.11 | 54% |
| 6.12 | 51% |
| 7.01 | 48% |
| 7.02 | 45% |
| 7.03 | 42% |
| 7.04 | 39% |
| 7.05 | 35% |
| 7.06 | 32% |
| 7.07 | 30% |
| 7.08 | 26% |
| 7.09 | 23% |
| 7.10 | 21% |
| 7.11 | 19% |
| 7.12 | 16% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.07-5.08 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 4% | 428 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 5% | 539 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 6% | 623 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 6% | 602 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 6% | 636 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 6% | 621 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 6% | 585 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 6% | 628 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which RJ Harvey was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3%
- Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 3%
Usually taken just after
- Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 3%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
RJ Harvey was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.