KC · Bye 5
Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes comes off the board at 9.03 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 9.02.
12-team Half PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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Patrick Mahomes’ Wife Apologizes For Not Holding Back In Another Chiefs’ Victory
Yahoo Sports ·
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AFC Notes: Patrick Mahomes, David Njoku, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs
yardbarker.com ·
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Former Patrick Mahomes backup signs deal with CFL team
bundle.app ·
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"Patrick told me no resting b*tch face": Brittany Mahomes' candid admission about Patrick Mahomes sparks debate over her marriage
timesofindia.indiatimes.com ·
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"I remember being in trouble": Patrick Mahomes makes an emotional confession about his life as he gears up for the Week 2 clash against the Indianapolis Colts
timesofindia.indiatimes.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Patrick Mahomes by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Patrick Mahomes has averaged +10.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 13.5 | 21.7 | +8.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 16.8 | 29.0 | +12.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 18.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB13. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.
Preseason market: QB13 · ADP 103.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Half PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Patrick Mahomes #48 in 1QB and #24 in Superflex, QB10 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#48
QB10 · tier 14 · of 297
Superflex
#24
QB10 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 285.2 pts 20.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 88% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 36.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.03
pick 99.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.02
half of simulations take him by pick 98
Draft range
7.11 - 10.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 98 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 10.11, where he is available in 7% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 9.02 52% · 10.11 7% · 11.02 4% · 12.11 <1% · 13.02 <1% · 14.11 <1% · 15.02 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.06 and 9.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.12 | 58% |
| 9.01 | 55% |
| 9.02 | 52% |
| 9.03 | 49% |
| 9.04 | 46% |
| 9.05 | 43% |
| 9.06 | 41% |
| 9.07 | 38% |
| 9.08 | 35% |
| 9.09 | 33% |
| 9.10 | 30% |
| 9.11 | 28% |
| 9.12 | 26% |
| 10.01 | 24% |
| 10.02 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.11-7.12 | 4% | 423 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 451 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 6% | 572 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 6% | 634 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 6% | 611 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 6% | 562 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 4% | 368 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 3% | 330 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 3% | 313 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Patrick Mahomes was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Makai Lemon WR · PHI 2%
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Patrick Mahomes was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.