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QB

ATL · Bye 11

Michael Penix Jr.

LMD QB25 for Week 5 · 13.5 projected Half PPR points

Questionable

In season

Week 5 fantasy ranking

We project 13.5 points this week, QB25. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 32% · Top 24: 70% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.

Week 5

QB25

44th by projected points

Projected

13.5

week 5, Half PPR

Top 12

32%

Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 70% at QB

Movement

—

Unchanged: QB25 in Week 4

Should you start Michael Penix Jr. in Week 5?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Michael Penix Jr. QB25 for Week 5, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 32% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Half PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All QB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Michael Penix Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games Michael Penix Jr. has averaged +3.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Michael Penix Jr., Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ PIT 3.8 Pending —
Wk 2 vs CAR 9.5 Pending —
Wk 3 @ GB 5.5 14.0 +8.5
Wk 4 @ NO 14.3 12.7 -1.6
Wk 5 vs BAL 13.5 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Michael Penix Jr. #161 in 1QB and #152 in Superflex, QB30 at his position. Age 26.

1QB

#161

QB30 · tier 37 · of 297

Superflex

#152

QB30 · tier 28 · of 303

  • Last season 120.3 pts 13.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 44% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Attempts 27.0 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

14.04

pick 160.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

14.05

half of simulations take him by pick 161

Draft range

12.11 - 15.08

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 6,898 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Dynasty

Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Michael Penix Jr..

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 14.05 in 66% of simulations

Pick 161 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 15.08, where he is available in 38% of simulations.

Slot 8's remaining turns: 14.05 66% · 15.08 38%

The middle half of simulations take him between 13.06 and 15.02.

Michael Penix Jr. still on the board
PickAvailable
14.03 70%
14.04 68%
14.05 66%
14.06 64%
14.07 62%
14.08 60%
14.09 58%
14.10 56%
14.11 54%
14.12 53%
15.01 51%
15.02 49%
15.03 47%
15.04 45%
15.05 44%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Michael Penix Jr. was selected at each pick, 12.11-12.12 through 15.07-15.08. He goes earlier than this window in 6%, later in 6%, undrafted in 31%.
Draft position distribution for Michael Penix Jr.
PickShare of simulationsCount
12.11-12.122%243 of 10000 simulations
13.01-13.023%288 of 10000 simulations
13.03-13.043%282 of 10000 simulations
13.05-13.063%298 of 10000 simulations
13.07-13.083%304 of 10000 simulations
13.09-13.103%292 of 10000 simulations
13.11-13.123%323 of 10000 simulations
14.01-14.024%361 of 10000 simulations
14.03-14.044%350 of 10000 simulations
14.05-14.064%394 of 10000 simulations
14.07-14.084%406 of 10000 simulations
14.09-14.104%391 of 10000 simulations
14.11-14.123%339 of 10000 simulations
15.01-15.024%377 of 10000 simulations
15.03-15.044%361 of 10000 simulations
15.05-15.064%353 of 10000 simulations
15.07-15.083%325 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 6898 simulations in which Michael Penix Jr. was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Michael Penix Jr. was selected in 6898 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 8, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.