MIA · Bye 6
Malik Willis
LMD QB27 for Week 5 · 12.1 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 5 fantasy ranking
We project 12.1 points this week, QB27. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 71% of simulated weeks. Up 3 since Week 4.
Week 5
QB27
70th by projected points
Projected
12.1
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
25%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 71% at QB
Movement
↑ 3
QB30 in Week 4, QB27 now
Should you start Malik Willis in Week 5?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Malik Willis QB27 for Week 5, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 25% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB27 vs QB33 +6
LMD has him QB27. The fantasy draft market has him QB33, 6 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.00 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.53 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.64 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.15 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.30 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Dolphins have perfect trade to make to finally give Malik Willis weapon he needs
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Is Malik Willis getting too much BLAME for the Dolphins’ 0-4 Start?
dolphinstalk.com ·
-
Everyone is asking the wrong question about Malik Willis and the Miami Dolphins’ future at quarterback
yardbarker.com ·
-
'No way this guy's a backup': How Malik Willis prepared for his second chance
ESPN ·
-
Reporter shares tough update for Malik Willis regarding future with Dolphins
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Malik Willis by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Malik Willis has averaged -2.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LV | 12.5 | 16.7 | +4.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ SF | 11.3 | 12.5 | +1.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs KC | 14.3 | 10.0 | -4.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ MIN | 12.0 | 2.5 | -9.5 |
| Wk 5 | vs CIN | 12.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB25. This week LMD has him 2 spots lower, at QB27.
Preseason market: QB25 · ADP 161.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 5
QB27 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his QB25 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB25 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Malik Willis #268 in Superflex. Age 27.
1QB
--
Not ranked on this board
Superflex
#268
QB47 · tier 55 · of 303
- Last season 51.2 pts 12.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 25% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 7.6 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR Superflex drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.06
pick 138.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.02
half of simulations take him by pick 134
Draft range
10.10 - 15.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,411 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.02 in 54% of simulations
Pick 134 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 13.11, where he is available in 26% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 12.02 54% · 13.11 26% · 14.02 25% · 15.11 8%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.05 and 12.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.12 | 60% |
| 12.01 | 57% |
| 12.02 | 54% |
| 12.03 | 52% |
| 12.04 | 49% |
| 12.05 | 47% |
| 12.06 | 45% |
| 12.07 | 42% |
| 12.08 | 40% |
| 12.09 | 37% |
| 12.10 | 35% |
| 12.11 | 33% |
| 12.12 | 31% |
| 13.01 | 29% |
| 13.02 | 29% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.10-10.12 | 6% | 623 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.03 | 7% | 709 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 7% | 718 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 7% | 741 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 8% | 771 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 8% | 772 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 7% | 728 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 7% | 695 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 97 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 85 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 99 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | 1% | 126 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9411 simulations in which Malik Willis was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
Usually taken just after
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR Superflex drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Malik Willis was selected in 9411 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.