GB · Bye 11
Jayden Reed
LMD WR105 rest of season · 70.3 projected Full PPR points
Reserve list (IR)
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 70.3 points this season, WR105. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 7.0 a game over 9.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Down 3 since the Oct. 1 board.
Rest of season
WR105
196th by projected points
Projected
70.3
rest of season, Full PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 0% at WR
Movement
↓ 3
WR102 on Oct. 1, WR105 now
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Wide receiver injury updates: Justin Jefferson, Jayden Reed, Puka Nacua
NBC Sports ·
-
Packers' Jayden Reed needs season-ending neck surgery
fremonttribune.com ·
-
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love reacts to Jayden Reed missing the rest of 2026 due to neck surgery
Yahoo Sports ·
-
How the Packers Can Overcome the Loss of WR Jayden Reed for the Season
yardbarker.com ·
-
Sports in brief: Packers add guard Kevin Zeitler and lose receiver Jayden Reed for the rest of the season
telegraphherald.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jayden Reed by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jayden Reed has averaged -4.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 7.3 | 5.0 | -2.3 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 7.2 | 1.4 | -5.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 7.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR41. For the rest of the season LMD has him 64 spots lower, at WR105.
Preseason market: WR41 · ADP 88.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR105 −64
LMD has him 64 spots lower than his WR41 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR41 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 70.3 points this season, WR105. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 7.0 a game over 9.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Down 3 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
7.0 / game
Over 9.825 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jayden Reed #195 in 1QB and #201 in Superflex, WR86 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#195
WR86 · tier 43 · of 297
Superflex
#201
WR86 · tier 37 · of 303
- Last season 39.0 pts 7.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 64% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.10
pick 117.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.08
half of simulations take him by pick 116
Draft range
9.04 - 12.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,982 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.08 in 52% of simulations
Pick 116 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 11.05, where he is available in 29% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 10.08 52% · 11.05 29% · 12.08 7% · 13.05 3% · 14.08 2% · 15.05 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.11 and 11.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.06 | 57% |
| 10.07 | 55% |
| 10.08 | 52% |
| 10.09 | 49% |
| 10.10 | 47% |
| 10.11 | 44% |
| 10.12 | 41% |
| 11.01 | 39% |
| 11.02 | 36% |
| 11.03 | 34% |
| 11.04 | 32% |
| 11.05 | 29% |
| 11.06 | 28% |
| 11.07 | 25% |
| 11.08 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 6% | 558 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 3% | 320 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9982 simulations in which Jayden Reed was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Michael Pittman WR · PIT 2%
- Jordan Addison WR · MIN 2%
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 2%
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
Usually taken just after
- Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jayden Reed was selected in 9982 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.