CAR · Bye 5
Chuba Hubbard
LMD RB14 for Week 4 · 14.3 projected Full PPR points · RB13 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 14.3 points this week, RB14. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 37% · Top 24: 66% of simulated weeks. Up 7 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB14
54th by projected points
Rest of season
RB13
30th by projected points
Projected
14.3
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
37%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 66% at RB
Movement
↑ 7
RB21 in Week 3, RB14 now
Should you start Chuba Hubbard in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Chuba Hubbard RB14 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 66% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB14 vs RB24 +10
LMD has him RB14. The fantasy draft market has him RB24, 10 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.11 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.16 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.56 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.58 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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No designation for Chuba Hubbard
USA TODAY ·
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Chuba Hubbard returns to practice
USA TODAY ·
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Chuba Hubbard misses practice
USA TODAY ·
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Chuba Hubbard & 4 Other Fantasy Football Players Who Should Be Avoided as They Approach a Tough Week 4
Yahoo Sports ·
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Fantasy Football RB Rankings Week 4: Jahmyr Gibbs Leads, Chuba Hubbard Cracks the Top 10
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Chuba Hubbard by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Chuba Hubbard has averaged +8.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 5.9 | 23.7 | +17.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 8.8 | 14.4 | +5.6 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 12.9 | 15.0 | +2.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 14.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB30. For the rest of the season LMD has him 17 spots higher, at RB13.
Preseason market: RB30 · ADP 77.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB13 +17
LMD has him 17 spots higher than his RB30 draft price.
Week 4
RB14 +16
LMD has him 16 spots higher than his RB30 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB30 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 192.2 points this season, RB13. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 95% of simulated seasons. That is 14.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
14.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 95%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chuba Hubbard #144 in 1QB and #145 in Superflex, RB40 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#144
RB40 · tier 32 · of 297
Superflex
#145
RB40 · tier 26 · of 303
- Last season 110.4 pts 7.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 15.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.05
pick 77.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.05
half of simulations take him by pick 77
Draft range
6.04 - 8.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.05 in 54% of simulations
Pick 77 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 8.08, where he is available in 6% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 7.05 54% · 8.08 6% · 9.05 1% · 10.08 <1% · 11.05 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.11 and 7.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.03 | 63% |
| 7.04 | 59% |
| 7.05 | 54% |
| 7.06 | 50% |
| 7.07 | 46% |
| 7.08 | 41% |
| 7.09 | 37% |
| 7.10 | 33% |
| 7.11 | 29% |
| 7.12 | 26% |
| 8.01 | 22% |
| 8.02 | 18% |
| 8.03 | 15% |
| 8.04 | 13% |
| 8.05 | 11% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.04-6.05 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 4% | 384 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 5% | 533 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 6% | 570 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 7% | 653 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 8% | 766 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 9% | 888 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 9% | 867 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 8% | 798 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 7% | 738 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 8% | 758 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 4% | 415 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Chuba Hubbard was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 3%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 3%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3%
- RJ Harvey RB · DEN 3%
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chuba Hubbard was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.