KC · Bye 5
Brashard Smith
Brashard Smith comes off the board at 14.11 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 14.11.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Brashard Smith has averaged -2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 2.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brashard Smith #179 in 1QB and #181 in Superflex, RB48 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#179
RB48 · tier 40 · of 297
Superflex
#181
RB48 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 50.8 pts 3.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 7% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.11
pick 167.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.11
half of simulations take him by pick 167
Draft range
14.02 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,762 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.11 in 68% of simulations
Pick 167 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 15.02, where he is available in 59% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 14.11 68% · 15.02 59%
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.05 and 15.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.09 | 73% |
| 14.10 | 71% |
| 14.11 | 68% |
| 14.12 | 65% |
| 15.01 | 62% |
| 15.02 | 59% |
| 15.03 | 56% |
| 15.04 | 53% |
| 15.05 | 51% |
| 15.06 | 48% |
| 15.07 | 46% |
| 15.08 | 43% |
| 15.09 | 41% |
| 15.10 | 39% |
| 15.11 | 37% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.02 | 3% | 288 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | 3% | 273 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | 3% | 307 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 3% | 292 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 3% | 276 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 3% | 320 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 3% | 264 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 241 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 247 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 230 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6762 simulations in which Brashard Smith was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 3%
- Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 2%
Usually taken just after
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Chris Brazzell II WR · CAR 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brashard Smith was selected in 6762 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.