BAL · Bye 13 · Rookie
Elijah Sarratt
LMD WR145 for Week 5 · 1.6 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 5 fantasy ranking
We project 1.6 points this week, WR145. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated weeks. Down 48 since Week 4.
Week 5
WR145
347th by projected points
Projected
1.6
week 5, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 0% at WR
Movement
↓ 48
WR97 in Week 4, WR145 now
Should you start Elijah Sarratt in Week 5?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Elijah Sarratt WR145 for Week 5, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 0% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.17 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Slight positive+0.22 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Elijah Sarratt has averaged -2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 2.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 1.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs TEN | 3.8 | 1.8 | -2.0 |
| Wk 5 | @ ATL | 1.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Elijah Sarratt #236 in 1QB and #237 in Superflex, WR96 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#236
WR96 · tier 52 · of 297 · rookie 41 of 52
Superflex
#237
WR96 · tier 46 · of 303 · rookie 40 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 115 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.01
pick 36.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.02
half of simulations take him by pick 38
Draft range
3.02 - 4.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,677 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Elijah Sarratt.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.02 in 57% of simulations
Pick 38 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.07 and 4.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.12 | 64% |
| 4.01 | 60% |
| 4.02 | 57% |
| 4.03 | 54% |
| 4.04 | 50% |
| 4.05 | 46% |
| 4.06 | 43% |
| 4.07 | 38% |
| 4.08 | 34% |
| 4.09 | 30% |
| 4.10 | 26% |
| 4.11 | 22% |
| 4.12 | 18% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.02 | 2% | 176 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 2% | 186 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 2% | 241 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 279 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 3% | 337 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 4% | 357 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 4% | 374 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 311 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 384 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 375 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 358 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 428 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 4% | 407 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 4% | 428 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8677 simulations in which Elijah Sarratt was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brenen Thompson WR · LAC 4%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 4%
- Demond Claiborne RB · MIN 4%
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 4%
Usually taken just after
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 4%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 4%
- Riley Nowakowski TE · PIT 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Elijah Sarratt was selected in 8677 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.