PIT · Bye 9 · Rookie
Riley Nowakowski
Riley Nowakowski comes off the board at 4.01 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 4.02.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Weekly performance vs. LMD projections will appear once games begin.
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Riley Nowakowski #211 in 1QB and #215 in Superflex, TE30 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#211
TE30 · tier 46 · of 297 · rookie 33 of 52
Superflex
#215
TE31 · tier 39 · of 303 · rookie 35 of 52
- Draft capital Round 5, pick 169 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.01
pick 37.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.02
half of simulations take him by pick 38
Draft range
3.03 - 4.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,425 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.02 in 55% of simulations
Pick 38 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.09 and 4.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.12 | 64% |
| 4.01 | 59% |
| 4.02 | 55% |
| 4.03 | 50% |
| 4.04 | 46% |
| 4.05 | 41% |
| 4.06 | 36% |
| 4.07 | 30% |
| 4.08 | 26% |
| 4.09 | 21% |
| 4.10 | 17% |
| 4.11 | 13% |
| 4.12 | 9% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.03 | 2% | 171 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 2% | 206 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 2% | 241 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 3% | 305 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 5% | 457 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 5% | 505 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9425 simulations in which Riley Nowakowski was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 4%
- Carson Beck QB · ARI 4%
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 4%
Usually taken just after
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 5%
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 4%
- Sam Roush TE · CHI 4%
- Max Klare TE · LAR 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Riley Nowakowski was selected in 9425 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.