PIT · Bye 9 · Rookie
Riley Nowakowski
Riley Nowakowski comes off the board at 3.09 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 3.10.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated November 5, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Weekly performance vs. LMD projections will appear once games begin.
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Riley Nowakowski #211 in 1QB and #215 in Superflex, RB55 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#211
RB55 · tier 46 · of 300 · rookie 33 of 52
Superflex
#215
RB55 · tier 39 · of 307 · rookie 35 of 52
- Draft capital Round 5, pick 169 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.09
pick 33.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.10
half of simulations take him by pick 34
Draft range
2.12 - 4.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,911 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.10 in 52% of simulations
Pick 34 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 4.03, where he is available in 25% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 3.10 52% · 4.03 25%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.05 and 4.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.08 | 63% |
| 3.09 | 58% |
| 3.10 | 52% |
| 3.11 | 45% |
| 3.12 | 39% |
| 4.01 | 34% |
| 4.02 | 29% |
| 4.03 | 25% |
| 4.04 | 21% |
| 4.05 | 17% |
| 4.06 | 14% |
| 4.07 | 11% |
| 4.08 | 8% |
| 4.09 | 6% |
| 4.10 | 4% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | 2% | 163 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 3% | 292 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 4% | 360 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 5% | 542 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 6% | 594 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 6% | 637 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 6% | 587 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 6% | 584 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 374 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9911 simulations in which Riley Nowakowski was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 5%
- Max Bredeson RB · MIN 5%
- Nicholas Singleton RB · TEN 5%
- Nate Boerkircher TE · JAX 4%
Usually taken just after
- Adam Randall RB · BAL 5%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 4%
- Nicholas Singleton RB · TEN 4%
- Max Bredeson RB · MIN 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Riley Nowakowski was selected in 9911 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.