PHI · Bye 10
DeVonta Smith
LMD WR14 for Week 5 · 14.7 projected Full PPR points · WR15 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 14.7 points this week, WR14. Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 28% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 3 since Week 4.
Week 5
WR14
46th by projected points
Rest of season
WR15
31st by projected points
Projected
14.7
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
28%
Top 3: 10% · Top 24: 45% at WR
Movement
↓ 3
WR11 in Week 4, WR14 now
Should you start DeVonta Smith in Week 5?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks DeVonta Smith WR14 for Week 5, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 45% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.77 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Strong positive+2.12 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No signal · Upstream unavailable
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Eagles in Panic Mode After Latest Saquon Barkley, Devonta Smith Injury News
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith did not practice Wednesday
NBC Sports ·
-
Eagles Injury Report: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith among 7 players who did not practice
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith hands out breakfast at McDonald's in Cherry Hill, New Jersey
6abc.com ·
-
Devonta Smith to be at Cherry Hill McDonald's for breakfast giveaway
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to DeVonta Smith by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games DeVonta Smith has averaged +3.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 12.9 | 8.3 | -4.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 10.6 | 27.7 | +17.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 14.8 | 12.5 | -2.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAR | 14.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | @ JAX | 14.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR16. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot higher, at WR15.
Preseason market: WR16 · ADP 29.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR15 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR16 draft price.
Week 5
WR14 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his WR16 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR16 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 187.6 points this season, WR15. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 39% · Top 24: 77% of simulated seasons. That is 14.6 a game over 12.88 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 2 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
14.6 / game
Over 12.88 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 39% · Top 24: 77%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has DeVonta Smith #57 in 1QB and #64 in Superflex, WR19 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#57
WR19 · tier 16 · of 297
Superflex
#64
WR19 · tier 13 · of 303
- Last season 163.3 pts 9.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 25% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.09
pick 33.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.10
half of simulations take him by pick 34
Draft range
2.09 - 4.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.10 in 54% of simulations
Pick 34 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 4.03, where he is available in 30% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 3.10 54% · 4.03 30% · 5.10 <1% · 6.03 <1% · 7.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.04 and 4.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.08 | 63% |
| 3.09 | 58% |
| 3.10 | 54% |
| 3.11 | 49% |
| 3.12 | 44% |
| 4.01 | 40% |
| 4.02 | 35% |
| 4.03 | 30% |
| 4.04 | 26% |
| 4.05 | 21% |
| 4.06 | 18% |
| 4.07 | 14% |
| 4.08 | 12% |
| 4.09 | 9% |
| 4.10 | 7% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09 | 1% | 137 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 2% | 212 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 2% | 228 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 3% | 259 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 3% | 275 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 300 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 341 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 298 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 2% | 243 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which DeVonta Smith was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Tee Higgins WR · CIN 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
Usually taken just after
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 4%
- Tee Higgins WR · CIN 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
DeVonta Smith was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.