IND · Bye 13
Daniel Jones
LMD QB26 for Week 5 · 13.2 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 5 fantasy ranking
We project 13.2 points this week, QB26. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 75% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 4.
Week 5
QB26
57th by projected points
Projected
13.2
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
31%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 75% at QB
Movement
↓ 3
QB23 in Week 4, QB26 now
Should you start Daniel Jones in Week 5?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Daniel Jones QB26 for Week 5, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 31% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.54 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.69 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.25 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.59 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
In 2025, Daniel Jones was one of the NFL's best under pressure. In 2026, Giants Jones has returned
indystar.com ·
-
Daniel Jones and Colts need to cut down on turnovers
AP News ·
-
The Colts bet on Daniel Jones. He has to start paying them back
indystar.com ·
-
Shane Steichen voices support for Daniel Jones amid turnover issues
wishtv.com ·
-
Colts' QB Daniel Jones has 'got to play better' coming off win
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Daniel Jones by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Daniel Jones has averaged -3.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 12.7 | 9.0 | -3.7 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 11.1 | 11.4 | +0.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 13.3 | 7.9 | -5.4 |
| Wk 4 | @ WAS | 14.5 | 7.9 | -6.6 |
| Wk 5 | @ PIT | 13.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB24. This week LMD has him 2 spots lower, at QB26.
Preseason market: QB24 · ADP 160.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 5
QB26 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his QB24 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB24 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Daniel Jones #126 in 1QB and #108 in Superflex, QB26 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#126
QB26 · tier 28 · of 297
Superflex
#108
QB26 · tier 19 · of 303
- Last season 226.4 pts 17.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 63% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 30.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR Superflex drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.10
pick 153.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
13.09
half of simulations take him by pick 153
Draft range
12.03 - 15.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,189 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 13.09 in 59% of simulations
Pick 153 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 14.04, where he is available in 53% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 13.09 59% · 14.04 53% · 15.09 25%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.07 and 15.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.07 | 60% |
| 13.08 | 60% |
| 13.09 | 59% |
| 13.10 | 58% |
| 13.11 | 58% |
| 13.12 | 57% |
| 14.01 | 56% |
| 14.02 | 55% |
| 14.03 | 54% |
| 14.04 | 53% |
| 14.05 | 51% |
| 14.06 | 50% |
| 14.07 | 49% |
| 14.08 | 47% |
| 14.09 | 46% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.03-12.04 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 7% | 673 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 7% | 681 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 7% | 671 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 6% | 622 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 89 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | 1% | 104 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | 1% | 121 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | 1% | 127 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | 1% | 134 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 3% | 276 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 423 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 387 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8189 simulations in which Daniel Jones was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Bryce Young QB · CAR 2%
- Malik Willis QB · MIA 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR Superflex drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Daniel Jones was selected in 8189 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.