LAR · Bye 11
Colby Parkinson
LMD TE37 for Week 5 · 3.9 projected Full PPR points · TE76 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.9 points this week, TE37. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 18% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 4 since Week 4.
Week 5
TE37
229th by projected points
Rest of season
TE76
334th by projected points
Projected
3.9
week 5, Full PPR
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 18% at TE
Movement
↑ 4
TE41 in Week 4, TE37 now
Should you start Colby Parkinson in Week 5?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Colby Parkinson TE37 for Week 5, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 6% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.20 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.49 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+1.21 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.05 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Colby Parkinson has averaged -1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 3.3 | 1.6 | -1.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 3.0 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 3.6 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| Wk 4 | @ PHI | 3.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | vs BUF | 3.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 34.2 points this season, TE76. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.8 a game over 13.108 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 3 since the Oct. 6 board.
Per game
3.8 / game
Over 13.108 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Colby Parkinson #235 in 1QB and #235 in Superflex, TE35 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#235
TE35 · tier 52 · of 297
Superflex
#235
TE35 · tier 45 · of 303
- Last season 108.3 pts 7.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 87% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.10
pick 153.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
13.05
half of simulations take him by pick 149
Draft range
12.02 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,437 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 13.05 in 73% of simulations
Pick 149 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 14.08, where he is available in 67% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 13.05 73% · 14.08 67% · 15.05 57%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.07 and 15.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.03 | 74% |
| 13.04 | 73% |
| 13.05 | 73% |
| 13.06 | 73% |
| 13.07 | 72% |
| 13.08 | 72% |
| 13.09 | 72% |
| 13.10 | 71% |
| 13.11 | 71% |
| 13.12 | 71% |
| 14.01 | 70% |
| 14.02 | 70% |
| 14.03 | 69% |
| 14.04 | 69% |
| 14.05 | 68% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.02-12.03 | 3% | 313 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 2% | 235 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 51 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 54 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 67 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 59 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 90 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 121 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | <1% | 91 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 114 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 136 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 169 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 3% | 281 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 3% | 300 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 3% | 279 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5437 simulations in which Colby Parkinson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- David Njoku TE · LAC 2%
- Fernando Mendoza QB · LV 2%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Colby Parkinson was selected in 5437 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.