CAR · Bye 5
Bryce Young
Bryce Young comes off the board at 13.01 on average in 12-team Full PPR Superflex mock drafts, with a median of 12.08.
12-team Full PPR Superflex · 10,000 simulations · generated October 8, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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The Panthers Are Back: Bryce Young and TMac Are Leading the Way
yardbarker.com ·
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Bryce Young leads the NFL in passing yards through four weeks.
Sports Illustrated ·
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Panthers great boldly compares Bryce Young to legendary Hall of Fame QB
bundle.app ·
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MVP?! Three keys to watch if Panthers QB Bryce Young is on that path
ESPN ·
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Can Panthers QB Bryce Young continue producing at 'MVP' level?
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Bryce Young by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Bryce Young has averaged +7.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 12.2 | 31.4 | +19.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 14.8 | 24.1 | +9.3 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 17.7 | 13.6 | -4.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 17.3 | 21.5 | +4.2 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Bryce Young #77 in 1QB and #51 in Superflex, QB18 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#77
QB18 · tier 19 · of 297
Superflex
#51
QB18 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 218.0 pts 13.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 29.8 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR Superflex drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.01
pick 145.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.08
half of simulations take him by pick 140
Draft range
11.05 - 15.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,807 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.08 in 56% of simulations
Pick 140 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 13.05, where he is available in 42% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 12.08 56% · 13.05 42% · 14.08 33% · 15.05 22%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.11 and 14.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.06 | 61% |
| 12.07 | 58% |
| 12.08 | 56% |
| 12.09 | 54% |
| 12.10 | 51% |
| 12.11 | 49% |
| 12.12 | 46% |
| 13.01 | 44% |
| 13.02 | 43% |
| 13.03 | 43% |
| 13.04 | 43% |
| 13.05 | 42% |
| 13.06 | 42% |
| 13.07 | 41% |
| 13.08 | 41% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.05-11.07 | 7% | 725 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 7% | 733 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 8% | 784 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 8% | 791 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 7% | 719 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 7% | 724 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | 1% | 121 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | 1% | 117 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | 1% | 138 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | 2% | 207 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.07 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.10 | 3% | 261 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-15.01 | 4% | 387 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.04 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 152 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8807 simulations in which Bryce Young was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Malik Willis QB · MIA 2%
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Daniel Jones QB · IND 2%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Malik Willis QB · MIA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR Superflex drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Bryce Young was selected in 8807 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.