NO · Bye 8 · Rookie
Bryce Lance
LMD WR131 for Week 3 · 2.4 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 3 fantasy ranking
We project 2.4 points this week, WR131. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated weeks. Down 50 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR131
262nd by projected points
Projected
2.4
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 1% at WR
Movement
↓ 50
WR81 in Week 2, WR131 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.98 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.47 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.18 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Bryce Lance has averaged +0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 2.2 | 5.7 | +3.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 3.2 | 1.3 | -1.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 2.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Bryce Lance #259 in 1QB and #265 in Superflex, WR105 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#259
WR105 · tier 61 · of 297 · rookie 47 of 52
Superflex
#265
WR105 · tier 53 · of 303 · rookie 48 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 136 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.03
pick 39.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.05
half of simulations take him by pick 41
Draft range
3.05 - 4.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,548 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.05 in 58% of simulations
Pick 41 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.11 and 4.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.03 | 67% |
| 4.04 | 62% |
| 4.05 | 58% |
| 4.06 | 53% |
| 4.07 | 48% |
| 4.08 | 42% |
| 4.09 | 37% |
| 4.10 | 31% |
| 4.11 | 26% |
| 4.12 | 20% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.05 | 2% | 232 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 2% | 199 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 2% | 211 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 218 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 2% | 203 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 547 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 6% | 553 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 6% | 582 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 597 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8548 simulations in which Bryce Lance was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 5%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 5%
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 4%
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 4%
Usually taken just after
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 5%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 5%
- Reggie Virgil WR · ARI 5%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Bryce Lance was selected in 8548 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.