NYJ · Bye 13
Breece Hall
LMD RB18 rest of season · 177.9 projected Full PPR points
Out this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 177.9 points this season, RB18. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 85% of simulated seasons. That is 13.9 a game over 13 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it.
Rest of season
RB18
42nd by projected points
Projected
177.9
rest of season, Full PPR
Top 12
25%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 85% at RB
Movement
—
Unchanged: RB18 on Oct. 1
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Breece Hall & 3 starters out: How injury crisis affects Jets vs. Bears Week 4 lines
silive.com ·
-
Jets set to face the Bears without Breece Hall and three other starters on offense
bhpioneer.com ·
-
Breece Hall remains sidelined
USA TODAY ·
-
Jets Backfield Remains Solid Despite Breece Hall Injury
bundle.app ·
-
Grounded without Breece Hall, Jets should let Geno Smith and passing attack fly
oneidadispatch.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Breece Hall by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Breece Hall has averaged +0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ TEN | 12.1 | 19.8 | +7.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs GB | 12.7 | 14.2 | +1.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ DET | 15.1 | 8.5 | -6.6 |
| Wk 4 | @ CHI | 14.0 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB14. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots lower, at RB18.
Preseason market: RB14 · ADP 30.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB18 −4
LMD has him 4 spots lower than his RB14 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB14 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 177.9 points this season, RB18. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 85% of simulated seasons. That is 13.9 a game over 13 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it.
Per game
13.9 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 85%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Breece Hall #33 in 1QB and #43 in Superflex, RB13 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#33
RB13 · tier 12 · of 297
Superflex
#43
RB13 · tier 10 · of 303
- Last season 189.7 pts 11.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 18.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.07
pick 30.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.07
half of simulations take him by pick 31
Draft range
2.06 - 4.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.07 in 51% of simulations
Pick 31 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 4.06, where he is available in 14% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 3.07 51% · 4.06 14% · 5.07 <1% · 6.06 <1% · 7.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.11 and 4.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.05 | 58% |
| 3.06 | 55% |
| 3.07 | 51% |
| 3.08 | 47% |
| 3.09 | 44% |
| 3.10 | 40% |
| 3.11 | 36% |
| 3.12 | 33% |
| 4.01 | 29% |
| 4.02 | 26% |
| 4.03 | 22% |
| 4.04 | 19% |
| 4.05 | 16% |
| 4.06 | 14% |
| 4.07 | 11% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.06-2.07 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08-2.09 | 6% | 574 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10-2.11 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12-3.01 | 6% | 606 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02-3.03 | 7% | 668 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04-3.05 | 7% | 728 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06-3.07 | 7% | 728 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08-3.09 | 8% | 753 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10-3.11 | 7% | 718 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 7% | 709 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 7% | 655 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Breece Hall was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 4%
- Drake Maye QB · NE 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Breece Hall was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.