TB · Bye 10
Bucky Irving
LMD RB18 for Week 4 · 13.1 projected Full PPR points · RB20 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.1 points this week, RB18. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 56% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 5 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB18
66th by projected points
Rest of season
RB20
46th by projected points
Projected
13.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
31%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 56% at RB
Movement
↓ 5
RB13 in Week 3, RB18 now
Should you start Bucky Irving in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Bucky Irving RB18 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 56% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.30 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.31 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.71 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.39 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Predicted Stat Line: Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs Green Bay
yardbarker.com ·
-
Bucky Irving not on injury report for Week 4
USA TODAY ·
-
Bucky Irving limited at practice
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Predicted Stat Line: Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs Minnesota
yardbarker.com ·
-
Bucky Irving on a 'pitch count' in 2026
USA TODAY ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Bucky Irving by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Bucky Irving has averaged +2.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 9.1 | 20.3 | +11.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 11.4 | 13.0 | +1.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 14.2 | 7.8 | -6.4 |
| Wk 4 | vs GB | 13.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB20, and for the rest of the season LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: RB20 · ADP 46.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB20 Even
Level with his RB20 draft price.
Week 4
RB18 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his RB20 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB20 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 171.3 points this season, RB20. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 16% · Top 24: 83% of simulated seasons. That is 12.8 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
12.8 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 16% · Top 24: 83%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Bucky Irving #83 in 1QB and #85 in Superflex, RB27 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#83
RB27 · tier 20 · of 297
Superflex
#85
RB27 · tier 16 · of 303
- Last season 123.5 pts 12.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 74% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 18.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.11
pick 35.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.12
half of simulations take him by pick 36
Draft range
2.09 - 4.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.12 in 51% of simulations
Pick 36 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 4.01, where he is available in 48% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 3.12 51% · 4.01 48% · 5.12 <1% · 6.01 <1% · 7.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.04 and 4.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.10 | 58% |
| 3.11 | 55% |
| 3.12 | 51% |
| 4.01 | 48% |
| 4.02 | 44% |
| 4.03 | 40% |
| 4.04 | 37% |
| 4.05 | 33% |
| 4.06 | 29% |
| 4.07 | 25% |
| 4.08 | 22% |
| 4.09 | 19% |
| 4.10 | 16% |
| 4.11 | 13% |
| 4.12 | 11% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09-2.10 | 4% | 386 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11-2.12 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01-3.02 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03-3.04 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05-3.06 | 6% | 596 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07-3.08 | 6% | 612 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09-3.10 | 7% | 680 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11-3.12 | 7% | 704 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01-4.02 | 8% | 759 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03-4.04 | 7% | 737 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05-4.06 | 8% | 769 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 7% | 668 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 6% | 558 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Bucky Irving was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 3%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 3%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 3%
Usually taken just after
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Travis Etienne RB · NO 3%
- Breece Hall RB · NYJ 3%
- Drake Maye QB · NE 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Bucky Irving was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.