CHI · Bye 10 · Rookie
Zavion Thomas
LMD WR111 for Week 3 · 3.9 projected Half PPR points · WR129 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.9 points this week, WR111. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 5% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR111
205th by projected points
Rest of season
WR129
225th by projected points
Projected
3.9
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 5% at WR
Movement
↑ 1
WR112 in Week 2, WR111 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+4.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Negative-1.13 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Zavion Thomas has averaged -1.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | vs MIN | 1.9 | 0.0 | -1.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs PHI | 3.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 60.8 points this season, WR129. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.0 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
4.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Zavion Thomas #192 in 1QB and #197 in Superflex, WR83 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#192
WR83 · tier 42 · of 297 · rookie 24 of 52
Superflex
#197
WR83 · tier 36 · of 303 · rookie 26 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 89 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.07
pick 174.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.07
half of simulations take him by pick 175
Draft range
15.02 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,115 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.07 in 85% of simulations
Pick 175 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.04 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.05 | 90% |
| 15.06 | 87% |
| 15.07 | 85% |
| 15.08 | 82% |
| 15.09 | 80% |
| 15.10 | 77% |
| 15.11 | 74% |
| 15.12 | 71% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.02 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 3% | 285 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 3% | 261 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 234 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 3% | 263 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 3% | 290 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 276 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3115 simulations in which Zavion Thomas was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 3%
- Marvin Mims Jr. WR · DEN 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
Usually taken just after
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 3%
- Pat Bryant WR · DEN 2%
- Chris Brazzell II WR · CAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Zavion Thomas was selected in 3115 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.