LAR · Bye 11 · Rookie
Ty Simpson
Ty Simpson comes off the board at 11.11 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 11.11.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 4.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 6.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Ty Simpson #119 in 1QB and #100 in Superflex, QB24 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#119
QB24 · tier 27 · of 297 · rookie 12 of 52
Superflex
#100
QB24 · tier 18 · of 303 · rookie 9 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 13 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.11
pick 131.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.11
half of simulations take him by pick 131
Draft range
9.10 - 14.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,957 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.11 in 50% of simulations
Pick 131 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 12.02, where he is available in 45% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 11.11 50% · 12.02 45% · 13.11 13% · 14.02 10% · 15.11 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.09 and 13.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.09 | 54% |
| 11.10 | 52% |
| 11.11 | 50% |
| 11.12 | 48% |
| 12.01 | 47% |
| 12.02 | 45% |
| 12.03 | 43% |
| 12.04 | 41% |
| 12.05 | 39% |
| 12.06 | 38% |
| 12.07 | 36% |
| 12.08 | 34% |
| 12.09 | 32% |
| 12.10 | 31% |
| 12.11 | 29% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.10-9.12 | 3% | 332 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.03 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.06 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.09 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.12 | 5% | 514 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.03 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 6% | 626 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 5% | 535 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 6% | 562 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 6% | 552 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01 | <1% | 97 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9957 simulations in which Ty Simpson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kaelon Black RB · SF 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
- Dylan Sampson RB · CLE 2%
- Tyler Shough QB · NO 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kaelon Black RB · SF 2%
- Tua Tagovailoa QB · ATL 2%
- Dylan Sampson RB · CLE 2%
- Daniel Jones QB · IND 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Ty Simpson was selected in 9957 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.