HOU · Bye 8 · Rookie
Marlin Klein
LMD TE85 for Week 5 · 1.5 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 5 fantasy ranking
We project 1.5 points this week, TE85. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 6% of simulated weeks.
Week 5
TE85
361st by projected points
Projected
1.5
week 5, Half PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 6% at TE
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at TE in Week 4
Should you start Marlin Klein in Week 5?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Marlin Klein TE85 for Week 5, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 1% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Neutral+0.02 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No signal · Upstream unavailable
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | — | — | 2.1 | — |
| Wk 5 | @ TEN | 1.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Marlin Klein #210 in 1QB and #212 in Superflex, TE29 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#210
TE29 · tier 46 · of 297 · rookie 32 of 52
Superflex
#212
TE29 · tier 38 · of 303 · rookie 32 of 52
- Draft capital Round 2, pick 59 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.01
pick 36.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.01
half of simulations take him by pick 37
Draft range
3.03 - 4.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,633 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Marlin Klein.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.01 in 55% of simulations
Pick 37 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.08 and 4.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.11 | 65% |
| 3.12 | 60% |
| 4.01 | 55% |
| 4.02 | 51% |
| 4.03 | 46% |
| 4.04 | 41% |
| 4.05 | 37% |
| 4.06 | 32% |
| 4.07 | 27% |
| 4.08 | 22% |
| 4.09 | 18% |
| 4.10 | 14% |
| 4.11 | 10% |
| 4.12 | 6% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.03 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 3% | 341 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 5% | 495 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 457 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 4% | 399 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9633 simulations in which Marlin Klein was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Riley Nowakowski TE · PIT 5%
- Nate Boerkircher TE · JAX 4%
- Eli Stowers TE · PHI 4%
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 4%
Usually taken just after
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Riley Nowakowski TE · PIT 4%
- Nate Boerkircher TE · JAX 4%
- Adam Randall RB · BAL 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Marlin Klein was selected in 9633 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.