CHI · Bye 10 · Rookie
Sam Roush
LMD TE Tier 11 for Week 9 · 1.8 projected Half PPR points · TE61 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 1.8 points this week, TE Tier 11. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 0.5 - 3.3 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 7% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 11
1.3 - 1.8 projected points
Rest of season
TE61
289th by projected points
Projected
1.8
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 7% at TE
Movement
↑ 15
TE88 in Week 8, TE73 now
Should you start Sam Roush in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Sam Roush TE73 for Week 9, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 1% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE73 vs TE50 -23
LMD has him TE73. The fantasy draft market has him TE50, 23 places higher.
Recent usage below his season baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.74 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.68 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.33 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 4 completed games Sam Roush has averaged -1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | — | — | 1.4 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs PHI | 1.7 | 2.1 | +0.4 |
| Wk 4 | vs NYJ | 2.3 | 1.3 | -1.0 |
| Wk 5 | @ GB | 2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
| Wk 6 | @ ATL | 1.4 | 0.0 | -1.4 |
| Wk 7 | vs NE | 1.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 8 | @ SEA | 1.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 9 | vs TB | 1.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 27.0 points this season, TE61. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 1.7 a game over 13 remaining games. Up 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
1.7 / game
Over 13 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Sam Roush #231 in 1QB and #233 in Superflex, TE33 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#231
TE33 · tier 51 · of 300 · rookie 39 of 52
Superflex
#233
TE33 · tier 44 · of 307 · rookie 39 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 69 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.04
pick 40 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.06
half of simulations take him by pick 42
Draft range
3.06 - 4.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,433 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.06 in 63% of simulations
Pick 42 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.12 and 4.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.04 | 71% |
| 4.05 | 67% |
| 4.06 | 63% |
| 4.07 | 59% |
| 4.08 | 55% |
| 4.09 | 50% |
| 4.10 | 45% |
| 4.11 | 39% |
| 4.12 | 33% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.06 | 1% | 134 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 1% | 133 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 162 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 2% | 220 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 3% | 265 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 3% | 339 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 358 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 4% | 437 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 6% | 582 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 617 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7433 simulations in which Sam Roush was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 5%
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 5%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 4%
Usually taken just after
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 4%
- Oscar Delp TE · NO 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Sam Roush was selected in 7433 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.