CHI · Bye 10 · Rookie
Sam Roush
Sam Roush comes off the board at 4.04 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 4.05.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Weekly performance vs. LMD projections will appear once games begin.
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Sam Roush #230 in 1QB and #232 in Superflex, TE34 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#230
TE34 · tier 51 · of 297 · rookie 39 of 52
Superflex
#232
TE34 · tier 44 · of 303 · rookie 39 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 69 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.04
pick 39.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.05
half of simulations take him by pick 41
Draft range
3.06 - 4.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,636 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.05 in 65% of simulations
Pick 41 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.12 and 4.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.03 | 72% |
| 4.04 | 69% |
| 4.05 | 65% |
| 4.06 | 61% |
| 4.07 | 57% |
| 4.08 | 52% |
| 4.09 | 47% |
| 4.10 | 42% |
| 4.11 | 36% |
| 4.12 | 30% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.06 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 1% | 144 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 2% | 181 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 3% | 330 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 400 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 451 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 493 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 6% | 569 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 618 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7636 simulations in which Sam Roush was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Riley Nowakowski TE · PIT 5%
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 5%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
Usually taken just after
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
- Riley Nowakowski TE · PIT 4%
- Seth McGowan RB · IND 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Sam Roush was selected in 7636 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.