TB · Bye 10
Jalen McMillan
LMD WR72 rest of season · 83.6 projected Full PPR points
Reserve list (IR)
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 83.6 points this season, WR72. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 8.6 a game over 9.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Down 7 since the Oct. 1 board.
Rest of season
WR72
154th by projected points
Projected
83.6
rest of season, Full PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 0% at WR
Movement
↓ 7
WR65 on Oct. 1, WR72 now
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Jalen McMillan is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
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ADP UPDATE
Jalen McMillan's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 133.6 to 141.8 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Jalen McMillan has averaged -8.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 5.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 3.5 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 8.1 | 0.0 | -8.1 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR60. For the rest of the season LMD has him 12 spots lower, at WR72.
Preseason market: WR60 · ADP 140.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR72 −12
LMD has him 12 spots lower than his WR60 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR60 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 83.6 points this season, WR72. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 8.6 a game over 9.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Down 7 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
8.6 / game
Over 9.825 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jalen McMillan #286 in 1QB and #292 in Superflex, WR115 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#286
WR115 · tier 74 · of 297
Superflex
#292
WR115 · tier 64 · of 303
- Last season 23.9 pts 6.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 43% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 178.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.11
half of simulations take him by pick 179
Draft range
15.09 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 375 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.11 in 99% of simulations
Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.10 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | >99% |
| 15.11 | 99% |
| 15.12 | 98% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 2 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 5 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 11 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 29 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | <1% | 58 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 1% | 112 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 153 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 375 simulations in which Jalen McMillan was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF 4%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 4%
- Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3%
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jalen McMillan was selected in 375 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.