LMD Fantasy Support LMD
WR

MIN · Bye 6

Justin Jefferson

LMD WR15 for Week 5 · 14.2 projected Full PPR points · WR16 rest of season

Questionable

Regular season

Week 5 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 14.2 points this week, WR15. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 44% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.

Week 5

WR15

50th by projected points

Rest of season

WR16

34th by projected points

Projected

14.2

week 5, Full PPR

Top 12

27%

Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 44% at WR

Movement

—

Unchanged: WR15 in Week 4

Should you start Justin Jefferson in Week 5?

Start

Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Justin Jefferson WR15 for Week 5, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 44% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

LMD vs the draft market

WR15 vs WR6 -9

LMD has him WR15. The fantasy draft market has him WR6, 9 places higher.

Our projection is lower than the outside forecast and recent usage below his season baseline.

Full PPR scoring · Updated October 8, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Justin Jefferson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Justin Jefferson has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Justin Jefferson, Full PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs GB 15.2 31.2 +16.0
Wk 2 @ CHI 17.5 8.5 -9.0
Wk 3 @ TB 14.7 5.2 -9.5
Wk 4 vs MIA 13.9 Pending —
Wk 5 @ NO 14.2 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at WR6. For the rest of the season LMD has him 10 spots lower, at WR16.

Preseason market: WR6 · ADP 11.8

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

WR16 −10

LMD has him 10 spots lower than his WR6 draft price.

Week 5

WR15 −9

LMD has him 9 spots lower than his WR6 draft price.

Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

WR6 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 176.3 points this season, WR16. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 26% · Top 24: 70% of simulated seasons. That is 14.3 a game over 13.416 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 2 since the Oct. 6 board.

Per game

14.3 / game

Over 13.416 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 26% · Top 24: 70%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

thin

Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 8, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Justin Jefferson #53 in 1QB and #60 in Superflex, WR16 at his position. Age 27.

1QB

#53

WR16 · tier 15 · of 297

Superflex

#60

WR16 · tier 12 · of 303

  • Last season 159.5 pts 9.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 9.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 30% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

1.11

pick 10.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

1.11

half of simulations take him by pick 11

Draft range

1.04 - 2.04

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in every one

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams
Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 1.11 in 60% of simulations

Pick 11 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 2.02, where he is available in 24% of simulations.

Slot 11's remaining turns: 1.11 60% · 2.02 24% · 3.11 0%

The middle half of simulations take him between 1.08 and 2.01.

Justin Jefferson still on the board
PickAvailable
1.09 75%
1.10 69%
1.11 60%
1.12 47%
2.01 33%
2.02 24%
2.03 17%
2.04 12%
2.05 8%
2.06 6%
2.07 4%
2.08 3%
2.09 2%
2.10 1%
2.11 <1%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Justin Jefferson was selected at each pick, 1.04 through 2.04. He goes earlier than this window in 8%, later in 8%.
Draft position distribution for Justin Jefferson
PickShare of simulationsCount
1.043%280 of 10000 simulations
1.053%281 of 10000 simulations
1.063%345 of 10000 simulations
1.074%397 of 10000 simulations
1.084%419 of 10000 simulations
1.095%548 of 10000 simulations
1.1010%965 of 10000 simulations
1.1113%1268 of 10000 simulations
1.1214%1359 of 10000 simulations
2.0110%960 of 10000 simulations
2.027%679 of 10000 simulations
2.035%493 of 10000 simulations
2.044%374 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Justin Jefferson was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Justin Jefferson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 8, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 8, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-08)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Full PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.