LMD Fantasy Support LMD
RB

MIA · Bye 6

Jaylen Wright

LMD RB52 for Week 4 · 4.0 projected Half PPR points · RB69 rest of season

Questionable

Regular season

Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 4.0 points this week, RB52. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 10% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 47 since Week 3.

Week 4

RB52

208th by projected points

Rest of season

RB69

242nd by projected points

Projected

4.0

week 4, Half PPR

Top 12

3%

Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 10% at RB

Movement

↑ 47

RB99 in Week 3, RB52 now

Should you start Jaylen Wright in Week 4?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jaylen Wright RB52 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 10% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

LMD vs the draft market

RB52 vs RB58 +6

LMD has him RB52. The fantasy draft market has him RB58, 6 places lower.

Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.

Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All RB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jaylen Wright by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 1 completed game Jaylen Wright has averaged -2.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projection
Week by week for Jaylen Wright, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ LV 2.2 -0.1 -2.3
Wk 2 — — 1.1 —
Wk 4 @ MIN 4.0 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 45.4 points this season, RB69. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.1 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable.

Per game

4.1 / game

Over 14 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB

Market input

thin

Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Jaylen Wright #263 in 1QB and #267 in Superflex, RB73 at his position. Age 23.

1QB

#263

RB73 · tier 62 · of 297

Superflex

#267

RB73 · tier 54 · of 303

  • Last season 45.7 pts 5.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 62% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 7.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.12

pick 208.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.13

half of simulations take him by pick 209

Draft range

15.10 - 15.14

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 699 of them

Filters

League format

League size 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.13 in 97% of simulations

Pick 209 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.12 and 15.14.

Jaylen Wright still on the board
PickAvailable
15.11 >99%
15.12 98%
15.13 97%
15.14 95%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Jaylen Wright was selected at each pick, 15.05 through 15.14. He goes earlier than this window in <1%, undrafted in 93%.
Draft position distribution for Jaylen Wright
PickShare of simulationsCount
15.050%0 of 10000 simulations
15.060%0 of 10000 simulations
15.070%0 of 10000 simulations
15.08<1%2 of 10000 simulations
15.09<1%23 of 10000 simulations
15.10<1%43 of 10000 simulations
15.11<1%93 of 10000 simulations
15.121%146 of 10000 simulations
15.132%184 of 10000 simulations
15.142%201 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 699 simulations in which Jaylen Wright was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Jaylen Wright was selected in 699 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 14-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.